Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 9 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at sharply divergent levels across regions at 06:25 AEST this morning. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro at 389 MW and wind at 431 MW carrying the entire load with no fossil plant online. South Australia is at 0.026 tCO2/MWh with 94.7% renewable penetration; wind is supplying 1,493 MW with only 84 MW of gas CCGT and a trace of OCGT on the system. These two regions represent the lowest-intensity electricity available on the NEM right now by a substantial margin. Victoria sits at 0.564 tCO2/MWh with 53.8% renewables — 3,709 MW of wind is running alongside 3,219 MW of brown coal, producing the characteristic mid-range intensity profile that wind and coal dispatch together creates in that region. NSW and Queensland are the highest-intensity regions at 0.642 and 0.608 tCO2/MWh respectively; in NSW, 5,394 MW of black coal dominates output against 1,227 MW of wind, 656 MW of hydro, and 111 MW of solar, holding renewables to just 26.9%. Queensland shows a similar structure — 4,078 MW of black coal anchoring the dispatch stack alongside 1,690 MW of wind and 663 MW of gas OCGT, with renewables at 28.3%.

The overnight data shows the cleanest NEM conditions occurred in the 01:00–03:00 AEST window, when NSW dipped to around 0.508 tCO2/MWh on rising wind output and SA held sub-0.013 tCO2/MWh throughout. The morning demand ramp from approximately 06:00 AEST pushed NSW intensity back above 0.68 tCO2/MWh as coal plant loaded up and renewable share fell to near 18–19% — the highest intensity point recorded across the dataset. Both NSW and Queensland follow this pattern reliably: intensity peaks during the morning and evening demand ramps when coal output is highest relative to load, and eases during overnight and midday periods. Without meaningful solar generation in winter midday, the typical afternoon dip seen in summer is less pronounced, and the trajectory for NSW and QLD through the remainder of today is likely to stay in the 0.61–0.67 tCO2/MWh band.

For carbon-sensitive loads — EV fleet charging, electrolysis, data centre flexible workloads, or demand response programs — SA and Tasmania are the clear dispatch targets at any time today. SA's intensity is tracking a slight upward drift through the evening as wind eases (it moved from ~0.014 tCO2/MWh at 04:00 AEST to 0.026 tCO2/MWh now), but remains well below any other mainland region. If loads must operate in NSW or Victoria, the lowest-intensity windows are expected in the late overnight period from roughly 23:00 to 02:00 AEST tonight, when demand falls and wind penetration is historically at its daily peak for this season. Traders managing carbon exposure or green certificate alignment should note that Victoria's ~54% renewable penetration at present is its strongest reading of the day so far, sustained by strong wind output, and that figure may soften through the daytime hours if wind eases into the afternoon.