Regional Outlook — NSW1: Monday 8 June 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $86.77/MWh with total demand at 8,405 MW as of 06:25 AEST. That current price sits at the upper end of today's trading range — the day opened with overnight lows in the $24–$42/MWh band between roughly midnight and 05:00 AEST, climbed sharply through the morning peak to a session high of $114.12/MWh at 16:45 AEST, and has since moderated. The 24-hour price average across the visible history sits in the mid-$70s/MWh, making the current interval marginally elevated relative to the daily mean. Grid stress scores at 68.3 out of 100 and price stability at just 38.5 reflect the volatility seen across the morning and evening ramp periods.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,054 MW, with wind contributing 871 MW, hydro 528 MW, solar 154 MW, battery discharge at 42 MW, and gas OCGT at 18 MW. Gas CCGT is offline at this interval. Total renewable output — wind, solar, and hydro combined — sits at approximately 1,554 MW, representing 23.94% renewable penetration as of the latest reading. Carbon intensity is 0.6687 tCO2/MWh, broadly in line with the daytime average of 0.66–0.67 tCO2/MWh seen since around 11:00 AEST. Notably, the grid ran considerably cleaner in the overnight window, with intensity dropping as low as 0.41 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration exceeding 53% between midnight and 05:00 AEST when demand was sub-7,000 MW and wind output was higher relative to load. Tonight is following the same pattern at the current 100% cloud cover with effectively zero solar potential and a heating demand index of 8.4.

The predispatch outlook signals prices will firm further in the near term before easing. The 08:00 AEST interval (06:00 UTC) is forecast at $111/MWh — the near-term peak — before pulling back to $90.06/MWh at 08:30 AEST and stepping down to the low-$40s by 11:30–14:30 AEST overnight. The morning peak tomorrow (Tuesday 9 June) is forecast to rebuild strongly: $87.80/MWh at 17:30 AEST, $98.14/MWh at 18:00 AEST, $107.22/MWh at 18:30 AEST, and $105.13/MWh at 19:00 AEST, before softening through the afternoon into the $75–$84/MWh range. Load shifting operators should target the 11:30–14:30 AEST window tomorrow where predispatch shows a sustained $39–$40/MWh trough — a saving of approximately $71/MWh against current prices.

On market notices, there are no active AEMO notices directly affecting NSW dispatch or network constraints today. The active SA LOR2 notices (MNs 144212 and 144213, covering a forecast reserve shortfall of up to 163 MW on 10 June 2026 between 08:00–12:30 AEST) are SA-specific but