Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 10 July 2026

NSW spot price sits at $91.41/MWh at 6:25am AEST, down from the overnight evening peak that touched $174.59/MWh around 5:45pm yesterday and the $140-147/MWh band that held through the early evening ramp. Demand at the current interval is 8,232 MW, well off the 10,896 MW peak recorded near 5:35pm. Prices have eased steadily through the morning shoulder as demand tapers, tracking a broad overnight range of roughly $25-145/MWh across the past 24 hours, with the lowest print of $25.30/MWh forecast for the pre-dawn trough around 3:00-3:30am tomorrow.

Generation mix at 6:00am shows black coal dominant at 5,762 MW, followed by hydro at 507 MW, wind at 181 MW, battery output at 54 MW, solar at 50 MW, and gas OCGT contributing 39 MW, with gas CCGT offline. Renewable penetration sits at 12.01%, down sharply from the 35.6% peak reached around 1:30-2:00am overnight when wind and hydro output was proportionally higher against lower demand. Carbon intensity has climbed to 0.7729 tCO2/MWh, near the 24-hour high, reflecting the low renewable share and heavy reliance on black coal generation during this period.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price decline through the morning and into early afternoon, easing to $57-58/MWh by 11am AEST before firming again through midday to a local high near $111/MWh around 8:30-9:00am on the demand ramp. Prices are then forecast to soften into the afternoon, bottoming near $57/MWh by 3-4pm before a modest evening uplift to around $63/MWh by 6pm. The load window analysis flags the 3:00-4:00am period as the lowest-cost interval today, averaging $25.30/MWh with an $85.71/MWh saving versus peak pricing.

Two active NSW-specific notices remain relevant: a credible contingency reclassification for Upper Tumut Units 1-4 (in effect since 3 July following the 17 May simultaneous trip event, cause still under investigation) and completion of the Ravine-Upper Tumut 6X 330kV line planned outage, which returned to service on 9 July. No active market interventions or directions are currently in place for NSW. Weather today shows cool conditions (7.7-16.