Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 8 June 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $87.22/MWh with demand at 1,213.74 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that has been building since 05:00 AEST when demand cleared 1,089 MW at $80.20/MWh. The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: the session low of around 966 MW at 02:10 AEST corresponded with prices in the low-$70s/MWh, the morning peak of 1,321.88 MW at 07:50 AEST pushed prices to $87.87/MWh, and the brief $113.64/MWh spike at 06:00 AEST — when demand crossed 1,139 MW on the morning ramp — shows the price sensitivity at that threshold. The pattern is consistent: sub-1,000 MW demand clears at $71–$73/MWh; demand above 1,200 MW holds in the $87–$98/MWh band; and the $98–$99/MWh range seen at 07:35–08:00 AEST local time marks the ceiling for normal operating conditions today.
Current temperatures are 6.2°C with heating demand of 11.8 units and near-zero wind potential, which is consistent with the elevated evening demand now being observed. Demand is rising through the 1,200 MW level and, based on the morning peak profile — which reached 1,321 MW before easing to 1,247 MW by 20:00 AEST local and then re-climbing through the evening — a second demand peak above 1,200 MW is consolidating now. The generation mix of 778.63 MW hydro and 262.13 MW wind covers current demand with gas OCGT at zero output, indicating the system is meeting this demand level comfortably within existing despatch.
The forward price curve signals a near-term easing. Forecast RRPs step down from $80.20/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $70/MWh at 09:30 AEST, then settle in the $68–$77/MWh range through the bulk of the Tuesday trading day before recovering modestly into the $75–$77/MWh band in the morning period. The deepest forecast discounts — $68.22/MWh at 17:00 AEST and $68.50–$68.58/MWh around 20:30–21:00 AEST — align with the mid-day demand trough that today's actuals show typically falls to 966–1,005 MW. That $19–$20/MWh spread between the current spot and those trough forecasts is the primary flex opportunity for demand-side participants with discretionary load.
No market notices directly affect Tasmania. The SA LOR2 forecast for 10 June (subsequently cancelled at 02:20 AEST 9 June per MN 144214) carried potential Basslink implications, but with that notice cancelled the interconnector constraint risk from that event is removed. The price outlook for Tasmania today is therefore shaped purely by the domestic demand trajectory: prices are likely to ease as demand retreats from the current evening peak toward the overnight trough, with the $68–$70/MWh window between 09:30 and 23:00 AEST representing the softest conditions of the trading day.