Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 8 June 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $6.99/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,530 MW, a sharp contrast to the morning peak that drove prices above $90/MWh when demand climbed to 1,830 MW between 08:00 and 09:30 AEST. That demand-price relationship was pronounced today: below 1,000 MW during the overnight trough (from around midnight to 02:00 AEST), prices repeatedly printed at zero or negative; as demand ramped through 1,400 MW from 07:00 AEST onward, prices stepped up proportionally into the $80–$96/MWh range; and as demand softened back through 1,600 MW from midday, prices fell rapidly to single digits. The price elasticity today has been steep, with relatively modest demand moves of 200–300 MW translating into $50–$90/MWh price swings — characteristic of a grid running predominantly on wind (1,864 MW at the current interval) with minimal dispatchable thermal backstop.

Wind is generating 1,864 MW against total demand of 1,530 MW, which explains the current near-zero pricing — the grid is in net surplus with gas CCGT at just 42 MW and gas OCGT at 0.11 MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0108 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 97.79%. The overnight to morning price corridor followed a textbook pattern: negative prices from approximately 05:15 to 05:50 AEST as demand was low and wind output remained high, then a rapid price spike through the morning ramp as residential and commercial heating load lifted demand 800 MW in under two hours. This morning's intervention notice backdrop is relevant — AEMO flagged a foreseeable voltage intervention risk from 13:00 AEST on 8 June (subsequently cancelled at 13:30), indicating that high wind penetration at low demand levels created voltage management challenges on the network.

Forecast pricing is near-zero to negative for the remainder of tonight through to at least 08:00 AEST tomorrow, with the most negative intervals between -$5 and -$6.45/MWh forecast from 03:00–07:30 AEST and again from 10:30 AEST through 18:00 AEST tomorrow. This profile reflects an expectation of continued strong wind output against low overnight and daytime demand. The critical demand-side watch point is Wednesday 10 June: an active Forecast LOR2 notice (MN 144213, subsequently partially cancelled via MN 144214) flagged a capacity reserve shortfall of 13 MW against a 530 MW requirement between 10:30 and 12:30 AEST on 10 June. The earlier notices cited a shortfall of up to 163 MW. This is a planned outage interaction, and despite the partial cancellation, traders should monitor whether the LOR2 is fully resolved — any residual reserve gap on 10 June could push prices sharply higher during that two-hour window if wind drops coincide with demand at the forecast morning peak.