Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 8 June 2026

Queensland spot is at $99.96/MWh with total demand at 6,726 MW as of 06:30 AEST — up from a session trough of around 4,934 MW in the early hours, but well below today's intraday peak of 7,964 MW recorded at 17:50 AEST. The demand-price relationship across today's data is direct and tight: the morning ramp from ~5,400 MW at 09:30 AEST to the 7,900 MW range by 17:50 AEST drove spot prices from the mid-$30s/MWh through to a sustained $90–$111/MWh band, with the sharpest price response occurring above the 7,000 MW threshold where marginal plant clearly steps up the offer stack. Demand has since eased from that peak, and the corresponding price softening — from $103.83/MWh at 17:20 AEST back toward $99.96/MWh now — confirms the load-price relationship remains elastic in this demand range.

The overnight trough established today's floor pricing clearly. Between roughly 11:30 AEST and 15:30 AEST, demand sat in the 4,934–5,175 MW range and prices tracked $22–$25/MWh, indicating ample surplus capacity at low-load conditions in a winter overnight period. The pre-dawn ramp from 14:00 AEST (5,400 MW, $50/MWh) through 17:00 AEST (5,921 MW, $54.63/MWh) saw a steady price step-up consistent with thermal units sequentially dispatched into the merit order. The price threshold at $67–$77/MWh appears to correspond with demand crossing 6,000–6,500 MW, while the $87–$111/MWh range activates above approximately 7,000 MW — a pricing structure that has been consistent across the full 24-hour dataset.

Forecast prices point to a near-term easing then a second elevation. The 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $87.73/MWh, dipping to $63.73/MWh by 09:00 AEST as demand retreats post-morning peak, then falling further to $39.75/MWh through the 11:30–14:30 AEST overnight trough window. A morning demand rebuild is then priced in: forecasts lift to $92.95/MWh at 18:00 AEST, $103.05/MWh by 18:30 AEST, and hold at $87.73–$102/MWh through to 20:00–20:30 AEST. This two-peak shape — a current evening event unwinding, followed by a tomorrow-morning event — is the dominant price risk for today's remaining trading periods.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST sits across black coal at 4,748 MW, wind at 1,291 MW, battery at 317 MW, hydro at 143 MW, and gas OCGT at 136 MW, with solar at zero given the time of night. Wind at 1,291 MW is providing material output at a point where demand is building, which is moderating the degree of thermal dispatch required and containing spot prices in the $90–$100/MWh range rather than the $105–