Carbon Forecast: Monday 8 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at a wide spread this morning, with the latest interval (06:30 AEST) confirming TAS1 at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — entirely hydro and wind — and SA1 just above at 0.01 tCO2/MWh with 97.8% renewable penetration driven by 1,864 MW of wind and negligible gas (42 MW CCGT, 0.1 MW OCGT). At the other end, QLD1 reads 0.643 tCO2/MWh at 26.4% renewables, with 4,748 MW of black coal dominating its mix alongside 1,291 MW wind, 317 MW battery discharge, and 136 MW gas OCGT. NSW1 sits at 0.632 tCO2/MWh with 28.1% renewables — 5,410 MW black coal is the base, partially offset by 866 MW wind, 704 MW hydro, 390 MW battery, and 160 MW solar. VIC1 is at 0.588 tCO2/MWh with 51.8% renewables; its 3,479 MW wind output is broadly matched against 3,309 MW brown coal, pushing intensity noticeably below its overnight peak of 1.02 tCO2/MWh.

The trajectory through today reflects a winter solstice profile — solar contribution is minimal across all mainland regions given the season and early morning timing, so intensity improvement will be wind-driven rather than solar-driven. SA1 has held below 0.02 tCO2/MWh consistently since around midnight AEST and that condition persists; the brief excursion to 0.15 tCO2/MWh at 07:00–10:30 AEST corresponds to a gas response to morning demand, but intensity has since returned to sub-0.02 levels and is tracking flat. VIC1 has improved steadily from its overnight high, with wind sustaining above 3,400 MW; barring wind drop-off through the afternoon shoulder, intensity should remain in the 0.58–0.64 tCO2/MWh band. NSW1 and QLD1 show less variation — both are effectively coal-baseload dominated in June with wind providing moderate but bounded upside; neither region dips below 0.41 tCO2/MWh even at their overnight troughs.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the clearest low-intensity windows today are already open and persistent in SA1 and TAS1 — both are at or near their floor and have been since around 23:00 AEST last night with no indication of deterioration in the near term. VIC1 is the most favourable of the higher-load mainland regions, currently at 0.588 tCO2/MWh and trending down through the morning as wind holds. NSW1 and QLD1 offer limited flexibility — their best windows were overnight between approximately 01:00 and 05:00 AEST (NSW1 reaching 0.41 tCO2/MWh, QLD1 around 0.42 tCO2/MWh) and both have risen with morning demand. Without a material wind event, neither region is likely to revisit those troughs today during business hours. Operators with cross-regional flexibility or interrupt