Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 7 June 2026

Tasmania is sitting at 1,085 MW with a spot price of $87.87/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand rising steadily over the past hour from 1,045 MW at 06:00 AEST. This morning's demand build is tracking the typical winter weekday ramp as temperatures sit at 9°C with a heating demand index of 9 — cold enough to sustain elevated residential and commercial load through the day. The current price reflects a tight but stable supply position; the $87–$88/MWh band has been the dominant price level through most of the overnight and morning period, interrupted only by a brief floor-price episode between approximately 21:00–23:00 AEST (around $50/MWh) when demand was also running below 1,060 MW, illustrating a clear demand-price relationship in this market.

Today's demand trajectory is well-established from the history. Demand peaked near 1,241 MW around 18:10–18:25 AEST during the morning peak (UTC 08:10–08:25), with prices holding in the $65–$83/MWh range — notably softer than the prevailing $87/MWh level, suggesting surplus dispatch capacity was available to absorb that peak without significant price escalation. Demand then unwound through the midday trough to around 1,047–1,066 MW between 22:30–23:00 AEST (UTC 12:30–13:00), where prices dropped firmly to the $50.20/MWh floor. The afternoon-to-evening load recovery is now underway, with demand climbing back above 1,080 MW and prices re-anchoring to $87–$88/MWh — consistent with the pattern seen through the evening hours earlier.

The near-term price outlook is for continuation at $87–$88/MWh as demand consolidates in the 1,080–1,100 MW range through the morning. Forecast RRPs for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hours (UTC 21:00 and 21:30) are pinned at $87.24/MWh across all model runs, with the 07:30 AEST interval showing some forecast spread — earlier runs placed it at $111–$115/MWh before more recent runs revised down to $87.24/MWh, indicating uncertainty around whether demand will push into a higher dispatch stack tranche. Generation is currently 1,046 MW hydro and 85 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, so any sustained demand lift above 1,150 MW would test whether additional hydro headroom or interconnector support via Basslink is needed to hold price below the $100/MWh threshold. Load window forecasts through 07:30–10:00 AEST (UTC 21:30–00:00) show expected prices easing into the low-to-mid $80/MWh range and then stepping down further to the $65–$73/MWh range from 11:00 AEST onward as the overnight demand trough approaches.