Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 18 July 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $50.20/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,142 MW, climbing from an overnight trough near 1,000 MW around 03:45-04:15 AEST. The region has just moved through a sharp evening peak on 18 July where demand reached 1,333 MW at 08:00 UTC (18:00 AEST) and prices touched $181/MWh in the preceding evening ramp — confirming Tasmania's price-demand relationship remains tight once load pushes past 1,250 MW, with the 1,300+ MW band consistently pricing in the $90-115/MWh range through the morning and midday.

Demand is currently on a rising trajectory into the Sunday morning peak, tracking the same overnight pattern as the past 24 hours: a low around 1,000-1,050 MW in the pre-dawn hours (03:00-04:30 AEST), a steep ramp to 1,300+ MW through the 07:00-14:00 AEST window, and a secondary evening peak. AEMO's forecast curve for today shows prices climbing from the low $40s overnight to a midday peak around $84-88/MWh between 08:00-09:30 AEST target times, aligning with the expected demand build. This morning's cold snap (7.2°C, heating demand at 10.8) is supporting the ramp, though today's outlook (max 15.9°C, thin solar potential) doesn't point to unusual heating load beyond the typical winter Sunday pattern.

The critical price-sensitivity threshold in Tasmania sits around 1,250-1,300 MW — below this, hydro dispatch keeps prices in the $30-60/MWh band; above it, gas OCGT (currently 124.56 MW online) sets the marginal price, pushing intervals into the $90-180/MWh range as seen repeatedly through yesterday's peak periods. Forecast data shows this afternoon easing back toward $30-45/MWh as demand tapers from the midday peak, with the lowest-priced window projected for 16:30-18:30 AEST ($27-29/MWh) as demand falls toward the 1,070-1,090 MW range seen in yesterday's equivalent period. No active reserve or supply notices are constraining Tasmania today — the LOR1 condition and network reclassifications from earlier in July have all been cancelled, leaving hydro (1,086 MW) and wind (91 MW) to