Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 17 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $99.03/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,098 MW and climbing as the morning ramp builds. Overnight demand troughed near 1,160-1,190 MW between 03:00-05:00 AEST, coinciding with prices as low as $20-37/MWh, before the classic morning demand ramp pushed load back through 1,300 MW by 07:00, dragging price up to a peak of $140.34/MWh at 06:55. This morning's peak-to-trough price range of over $120/MWh on a demand swing of only around 250 MW illustrates how tightly Tasmania's price responds to marginal demand shifts, given hydro's dominant but finite dispatch flexibility.
The forecast trajectory points to further upside through the morning and into a sustained daytime peak. AEMO's forecast has prices building from $97-111/MWh through the 21:00-22:00 UTC window (07:00-08:00 AEST), before easing slightly around 09:00-09:30 AEST, then climbing again to $107-115/MWh through the late morning and into a midday peak near $114.75/MWh around 10:30 AEST equivalent. This aligns with demand patterns from yesterday's equivalent period, where load held above 1,300-1,400 MW for several hours around midday, keeping prices firm in the $100-130/MWh band. Demand is forecast to soften into the afternoon, with forecast prices easing to the $70-90/MWh range by early afternoon and falling further into the evening as heating demand tapers.
Current generation mix shows hydro supplying 974 MW, wind 261 MW and gas OCGT 208 MW, with renewable penetration at 85.57% and carbon intensity at 0.0938 tCO2/MWh. Cold conditions (8.6°C, heating demand index 9.4) are supporting elevated load, while wind potential is soft at 5.8 and solar potential negligible under 96% cloud cover, meaning hydro and gas peaking capacity carry the incremental demand response as load builds through the day. No LOR notices or constraint events are currently active in TAS1, though the historical notice log shows recent lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Gordon-Chapel St and Farrell-Reece lines, worth monitoring given today's overcast, showery conditions. Overnight low-price windows between 01:00-06:00 AEST tom