Commodity Demand — SA1: Sunday 7 June 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $67.35/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,342 MW — a moderate level consistent with the overnight-to-morning transition on a cool winter Monday (11.1°C, heating demand index 6.9). The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is instructive: when demand peaked at approximately 1,791 MW around 19:30 AEST, prices held in the $100–$120/MWh range, indicating sufficient supply at those volumes. The sharpest price excursions — up to $257.83/MWh — occurred earlier in the evening near 07:45 AEST at demand levels of 1,430–1,440 MW, suggesting those spikes were driven by supply-side tightness or dispatch dynamics rather than demand alone. The overnight trough saw demand fall to around 557 MW with prices compressing to the $28–$60/MWh range, broadly consistent with wind-heavy, low-load dispatch.

Today's demand trajectory follows a standard winter weekday ramp. From the current 1,342 MW, demand is expected to climb through the morning as space heating loads build, likely reaching a daytime plateau in the 1,700–1,800 MW range consistent with the prior-day pattern. The afternoon shoulder period will keep demand in the 1,400–1,500 MW band before an evening peak develops post-17:00 AEST. Forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST period (21:00–22:30 UTC) point to prices in the $72–$86/MWh range, reflecting that demand uplift without significant scarcity. Wind generation is currently strong at 1,306.84 MW — covering 91.88% of load on a renewable basis — which is suppressing price pressure at current demand levels. As demand rises into the 1,600–1,800 MW range and wind output fluctuates through the day, the marginal price setter is likely to shift from wind to gas CCGT (currently 119.86 MW), which will firm prices into the $80–$120/MWh band through the peak.

The critical demand-side risk on today's outlook is Wednesday 10 June: AEMO has issued and updated a Forecast LOR2 notice for SA, with the reserve shortfall window now running 08:30–17:00 AEST on 10 June. The updated notice shows a capacity reserve requirement of 571 MW against a minimum available of 384 MW — a 187 MW deficit. This is a forward signal, not a current constraint, but traders with positions or flexible load in that window should note AEMO is seeking a market response and has not yet set an intervention timeline. Today's demand and price outcomes are not directly affected, but the LOR2 notice reflects underlying tightness in SA's dispatchable capacity that could influence forward contracting and any capacity that comes online or offline between now and Wednesday morning.