Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 7 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $87.73/MWh with demand at 6,723 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That demand level is consistent with the evening ramp — up from a trough of around 4,335 MW in the early hours and climbing through the morning peak of 7,679 MW at 18:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's data is clear: every major demand inflection triggers a corresponding price response. The morning ramp from 15:30 AEST saw demand surge from 5,386 MW to above 7,000 MW in under 90 minutes, pushing prices from $66.99/MWh to above $110/MWh. The midday demand trough around 6,000–6,200 MW corresponded with prices pulling back to the $77–$90/MWh range, before the evening climb resumed.

The demand trajectory for today's remaining hours points firmly upward. Current demand at 6,724 MW is still well below this morning's 7,679 MW peak, and the typical Monday evening ramp pattern — amplified by a heating demand signal of 5.4 at 12.6°C ambient — suggests demand will push back toward the 7,000–7,500 MW range through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window. AEMO forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) have converged tightly around $87–$88/MWh across the most recent dispatch runs, suggesting the market is pricing the evening ramp with reasonable certainty. The 07:30 AEST forecast window carries slightly higher consensus readings of $102–$105/MWh, indicating traders are positioning for a step-up as demand peaks.

Price sensitivity to demand is elevated in the $6,500–$7,000 MW demand band, where the marginal unit pricing shifts from the $80–$90/MWh range to above $100/MWh. That threshold has been crossed multiple times across the price history — intervals at 6,737 MW saw $108.65/MWh, and the 7,058 MW interval at 16:50 AEST cleared at $116.59/MWh. The current 6,724 MW level sits just below that inflection zone. Any demand push above 7,000 MW this evening will likely see prices clear above $100/MWh again. Generation mix at the current interval comprises 4,712 MW black coal, 1,214 MW wind, 306 MW hydro, 159 MW battery, and 134 MW gas OCGT, with solar negligible at 0.14 MW given the time of day. Wind output at 1,214 MW is providing meaningful volume at the margin, and any softening of that figure as the evening progresses would tighten the supply stack and amplify price sensitivity to the demand ramp.