Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 17 July 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $102.80/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,164 MW — up from an overnight low near 5,190 MW at 02:15 AEST but well below yesterday's evening peak of 7,726 MW recorded at 17:50 AEST (07:50 AEST local settlement). The current trajectory shows demand climbing through the morning ramp, mirroring the pattern from the past 24 hours where every 1,000 MW of demand growth has typically added $30-50/MWh to price as the stack moves up through gas peaking capacity.
Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced in the 6,000-7,700 MW band. Overnight, demand troughing near 5,200-5,400 MW between 01:00-04:00 AEST held prices in the $56-78/MWh range, with several intervals briefly dipping below $50/MWh as black coal (currently 5,725 MW) and hydro (191 MW) covered baseload with minimal gas support. As demand pushed past 7,000 MW yesterday afternoon, gas OCGT dispatch increased and prices spiked repeatedly above $115/MWh, touching $128.94/MWh at 06:55 AEST — the sharpest single-interval move in the past day. This confirms QLD's price curve steepens materially once demand crosses the ~6,800 MW threshold, where the marginal unit shifts from coal to gas.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a mild day: prices are forecast to ease to $78.73/MWh by 07:30 AEST, then fall sharply overnight into negative territory (as low as -$5/MWh around 14:30 AEST target time), before recovering to $84-91/MWh through the Sunday morning ramp (17:00-19:00 AEST target times). This pattern reflects a well-supplied midday period — mild temperatures (13.3°C, heating demand only 4.7) and moderate solar potential (12.3% average) reduce peak stress relative to typical winter mornings. Given wind is currently contributing 1,272 MW and running strong, any softening in wind output during the day could push the afternoon trough price forecasts higher than currently modelled.
No new demand-side constraints from today's notices — the QLD intervention direction from 16 July has been cleared, and Directlink interconnector capacity to NSW is back in service since 11:30 AEST 17 July, restoring normal interconnector