Carbon Forecast: Sunday 7 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at sharply contrasting levels across the five regions at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania records 0 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro and wind. South Australia is at 0.0398 tCO2/MWh with 91.88% renewables — wind at 1,307 MW dominates, with only a sliver of gas OCGT (0.11 MW) and CCGT (120 MW) on the margin. At the other end, Victoria sits at 1.0547 tCO2/MWh with just 13.55% renewables; brown coal at 4,759 MW constitutes the overwhelming share of its dispatch, with wind contributing 713 MW and hydro a nominal 32 MW. NSW is at 0.665 tCO2/MWh (24.35% renewables), with black coal supplying 5,486 MW against a combined renewable stack of hydro 878 MW, wind 699 MW, solar 121 MW, and battery 76 MW. Queensland sits at 0.6488 tCO2/MWh with 25.74% renewables — black coal at 4,712 MW, wind at 1,214 MW, and hydro at 306 MW make up the bulk, with battery (159 MW) and gas OCGT (134 MW) providing flexibility.

The intraday trajectory in the data is instructive for load-shifting decisions. SA's intensity dipped as low as 0.0398 tCO2/MWh in the current interval and has been sub-0.05 since approximately 03:00 AEST, with renewables above 90% — this window persists through the overnight and early morning period driven by strong wind output. NSW reached its lowest intensity of 0.4371 tCO2/MWh around 02:30 AEST when renewables climbed above 50%, but has since risen as solar fades and coal carries more load through the morning peak. Queensland followed a similar overnight trough around 00:00–01:00 AEST at 0.439 tCO2/MWh, with renewables near 50%, before coal reasserted through the morning. Victoria's intensity peaked above 1.05 tCO2/MWh during the morning demand ramp and has eased only marginally; its overnight minimum of approximately 0.859 tCO2/MWh around 03:00 AEST was the best available window for that region.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA is the clear candidate for flexible consumption scheduling today — intensity remains near its floor and the wind resource shows no sign of easing imminently. Tasmania is equally favourable for any directly connected or Basslink-adjacent loads. NSW and QLD carbon-sensitive operations should note that the best windows for today have already passed (overnight into early morning); intensity in both regions will stay elevated through the day as solar contribution remains limited in the June low-sun period and thermal plant carries peak demand. In Victoria, no materially low-intensity window is available today given brown coal's structural baseload role and limited wind variability — operators with flexibility should consider scheduling around the overnight minimum trough, typically between 02:00–04:00 AEST, where intensity historically eases toward the 0.86–0.88 tCO2/MWh range based on today's pattern.