Carbon Forecast: Saturday 6 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at a wide spread as of 06:30 AEST, with Tasmania at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — entirely hydro and wind — at one end, and Victoria at 1.06 tCO2/MWh with only 13% renewables at the other. NSW is at 0.70 tCO2/MWh (19% renewables), Queensland at 0.73 tCO2/MWh (15% renewables), and South Australia at 0.48 tCO2/MWh (18% renewables). Victoria's intensity is driven by 4,742 MW of brown coal dominating its dispatch stack, with wind contributing 672 MW but insufficient to move the needle materially. NSW is similarly coal-heavy at 5,395 MW of black coal, supplemented by 907 MW of hydro and a combined 408 MW of battery and gas OCGT. Queensland runs 5,144 MW of black coal alongside 815 MW of wind and 563 MW of gas OCGT.

The day's carbon profile shows a clear overnight trough that has already passed. SA reached its low of 0.17 tCO2/MWh around 02:00–04:30 AEST on wind penetration above 70%, while NSW troughed near 0.44 tCO2/MWh around 13:00–15:30 AEST (01:00–03:30 UTC) when overnight wind was strongest. Both regions have since climbed as morning demand ramped and solar generation remains negligible in June. Queensland and NSW followed a similar pattern — renewable fractions above 50% in the small hours, compressing back to 15–19% through the morning peak.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling window for today has largely closed across the mainland. SA offered the best opportunity overnight into early morning; that window is now past its minimum. Tasmania remains at 0.00 tCO2/MWh continuously and presents no scheduling constraint from an emissions standpoint at any hour. On the mainland, the next relative improvement is unlikely before overnight tonight, when demand eases and wind typically lifts its share again — watch SA and NSW from approximately 22:00 AEST onward for intensity to ease back toward the 0.20–0.45 tCO2/MWh range if wind conditions are favourable. Victoria is unlikely to see meaningful intensity relief today given its generation stack composition and the absence of solar in winter dispatch.