Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 5 June 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $80.20/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 995 MW — well below the day's peak of 1,354 MW reached around 08:10 AEST when prices were anchored at $87.22/MWh. The demand profile across today traces a clear winter Saturday pattern: a morning ramp from overnight lows around 1,016 MW (04:05 AEST) up to the 1,300+ MW range through the 18:00–19:00 AEST window, followed by a steady retreat through the evening. The price response to demand has been notably inelastic across most of the range — the market has traded within a tight $78.24–$89.12/MWh band for the vast majority of intervals, with prices clustering at either $80.18–$80.20/MWh or $87.20–$87.22/MWh regardless of whether demand sits at 950 MW or 1,350 MW. The single outlier was a brief spike to $153.95/MWh at 17:45 AEST when demand jumped sharply to 1,319 MW, likely reflecting a transient dispatch constraint rather than a structural supply shortage.
The current demand level of 995 MW sits in what has been a low-price zone today. Across the price history, intervals below roughly 1,050 MW have consistently cleared at $80.18–$80.20/MWh, while demand above that threshold has generally pushed settlement into the $87.20–$87.22/MWh band. With tonight's ambient temperature at 6.6°C and heating demand at 11.4 units, demand is on a gradual upward trajectory through the evening — the price history from the equivalent period overnight (20:35–22:10 UTC+10) shows demand climbing from 1,174 MW to 1,354 MW with prices firmly at $87.18–$88.17/MWh. The same dynamic is plausible for tonight's ramp.
Forecast RRPs for the next several intervals are consistently priced at $80.20/MWh through to at least 08:30 AEST Saturday, suggesting the dispatch engine sees no imminent supply constraint. The generation mix — hydro at 885.6 MW and wind at 234.4 MW, with gas OCGT at zero — provides approximately 1,120 MW of local output against current demand of 995 MW, implying Tasmania is a net exporter across Basslink at this interval. That export-capable position supports the low price outcome. As demand builds through the Saturday morning ramp toward the 1,100–1,200 MW range expected from around 07:00–09:00 AEST, watch for the characteristic step from the $80.20/MWh clearing band into the $87.22/MWh tier — that threshold has been crossed repeatedly today at demand levels above approximately 1,050–1,100 MW.