Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 5 June 2026

NSW spot price sits at $92.72/MWh at 06:25 AEST with total demand at 7,743 MW — a figure that is rising steadily from a trough of roughly 6,830 MW recorded around 11:45 AEST. The demand trajectory over the past 24 hours reveals a clear price-sensitivity pattern: when demand climbed through the 9,000–9,500 MW band during this morning's winter peak (approximately 17:00–18:00 AEST yesterday and again around 07:00–08:00 AEST today), spot prices consistently broke above $94–$109/MWh, with the intraday peak of $109.28/MWh coinciding with demand at 9,585 MW at 17:00 AEST. Below 8,000 MW in the overnight trough, prices compressed to the $41–$70/MWh range, confirming a meaningful price step-up somewhere around the 8,500–9,000 MW threshold where the marginal dispatch stack tightens.

Demand is presently in an evening re-ramp phase, rising from a Saturday afternoon low. On a Saturday in June, the peak is typically softer than weekday levels — today's maximum is unlikely to reach the ~10,260 MW intraday peak seen at 17:45 AEST, with the weather data supporting this: it is currently 8.9°C in Sydney with negligible cloud cover, a heating demand index of 9.1, and only light winds at 15.8 km/h. The day's forecast high is 17.7°C, which constrains heating-driven demand relative to colder weekend days. Forecast RRPs for the 07:00 AEST half-hour cluster tightly in the $90–$96/MWh range across multiple AEMO pre-dispatch runs, indicating the market anticipates demand pulling prices back toward the $90–$98/MWh band as the evening load builds toward 8,500–9,000 MW over the next two hours.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal at 5,338 MW, hydro at 807 MW, wind at 241 MW, battery at 65 MW, solar at 13 MW, and gas OCGT at 19 MW. With solar output near zero at this hour and wind contribution modest, the marginal price is being set by thermal and hydro dispatch. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.7264 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 17.37% — both consistent with the post-solar, winter-evening mix. As demand lifts through 8,000 MW and approaches 8,500 MW in the coming intervals, watch for prices to move into the $95–$109/MWh range if the evening ramp follows the pattern established over the past 24 hours. The Saturday demand profile, combined with today's clear-sky forecast limiting residual solar contribution, means overnight prices should retrace sharply once demand falls below 7,500 MW — load window data points to prices dipping toward $35–$56/MWh from approximately 08:30 AEST onward.