Carbon Forecast: Friday 5 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at a wide spread this morning, with Tasmania at 0.00 tCO2/MWh and 100% renewable penetration across all recorded intervals — hydro at 885.6 MW and wind at 234.4 MW account for the entire Tasmanian dispatch. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.41 tCO2/MWh with 30% renewables, though that marks a notable lift from the 0.14–0.21 tCO2/MWh range SA sustained through the overnight hours when wind was carrying 70–75% of local demand. The overnight SA readings represent the cleanest non-Tasmanian windows across the entire dataset. Victoria sits at 0.90 tCO2/MWh with 26% renewables, the highest intensity on the NEM right now, driven by 4,694.8 MW of brown coal providing the bulk of dispatch alongside 1,377.7 MW of wind. NSW reads 0.73 tCO2/MWh at 17% renewables, with 5,337.7 MW of black coal dominating and hydro at 806.8 MW providing the main renewable contribution. Queensland is at 0.65 tCO2/MWh with 25% renewables — 4,941.9 MW of black coal anchors the mix, partially offset by a strong 1,210.6 MW wind contribution and 353.3 MW of battery dispatch.

The intraday trajectory for the mainland regions shows a consistent and unfavourable pattern across today's data. SA, NSW, and QLD all recorded their lowest intensity readings in the pre-dawn window between roughly 0130 and 0530 AEST, when overnight wind penetration peaked and thermal commitment was lighter. Intensity then climbed sharply through the morning peak — NSW rose from a low near 0.48 tCO2/MWh to above 0.73 tCO2/MWh by the time the afternoon settled in, while QLD moved from a trough near 0.39 tCO2/MWh to around 0.68 tCO2/MWh. With June solar output negligible across all regions — SA, QLD, and NSW all show effectively zero solar MW at this interval — there is no midday solar relief in the mix to compress afternoon intensity the way summer data would show. Victoria's intensity has remained relatively flat through the day in the 0.76–0.93 tCO2/MWh band, consistent with its baseload-heavy brown coal dispatch profile.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling decisions through the remainder of today, the lowest-intensity windows across the NEM are now behind us for this calendar day on the mainland. SA offered the clearest opportunity between midnight and 0600 AEST when intensity dipped to 0.14 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration reached 75%. The next comparable window for SA and QLD is likely to recur in tonight's post-evening-peak period, broadly from 2200 AEST onward, if wind output holds at current levels. NSW and VIC are unlikely to see meaningful intensity improvement until overnight wind ramps again, given the absence of solar in June and the sustained presence of large coal units at full output. Tasmania remains available as a zero-intensity source throughout the day for any load or interconnector-aligned strategy that can access Basslink flows.