Carbon Forecast: Thursday 4 June 2026

The NEM sits in its evening demand peak at 06:30 AEST, with carbon intensity climbing across most mainland regions as solar output is absent and thermal plant covers the load. Tasmania runs at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro at 1,061 MW and wind at 234 MW carrying the entire state. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.23 tCO2/MWh with 60% renewables, driven by 597 MW of wind and 177 MW of gas CCGT providing firming, alongside 76 MW of battery discharge. NSW sits at 0.60 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 31%, where 5,515 MW of black coal dominates generation but 1,413 MW of wind and 834 MW of hydro are active. Queensland is at 0.60 tCO2/MWh with 32% renewables — 4,855 MW of black coal and 1,384 MW of wind make up the bulk of supply. Victoria is the highest intensity mainland region at 0.83 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 32%, where 4,453 MW of brown coal underpins the grid alongside 1,583 MW of wind and 457 MW of battery discharge.

The trajectory through today's data is consistent with a typical June pattern. All mainland regions show intensity troughing in the overnight-to-early-morning window (roughly 11:00–15:30 AEST on this dataset), when demand is lower and wind penetration is proportionally higher. NSW hit its session low of 0.35 tCO2/MWh at around 13:00 AEST with renewables above 60%; SA reached below 0.02 tCO2/MWh in the early overnight hours with renewables above 95%. Victorian intensity troughed around 0.60 tCO2/MWh in the 15:00–19:00 AEST window — structurally higher than other regions given the brown coal baseload profile. Queensland's overnight low came in around 0.43 tCO2/MWh when wind penetration climbed above 50%.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable windows today are concentrated in the pre-dawn to mid-morning period. SA offers the lowest intensity on the mainland throughout the overnight and morning hours, with renewables consistently above 80–90% before midday. NSW and QLD offer their best windows between roughly midnight and 06:00 AEST when wind runs strong and demand is suppressed. Victoria's lowest-intensity windows are narrower and shallower given the continuous brown coal contribution. From this point in the day, all mainland regions are on an upward intensity trajectory as evening demand peaks and wind output does not fully offset the thermal response — carbon-sensitive loads should have already executed or wait for post-midnight conditions.