Commodity Demand — SA1: Wednesday 3 June 2026

South Australia sits at -$2/MWh with demand at 1,589 MW at 06:30 AEST, continuing a run of negative-to-near-zero pricing that has persisted through the overnight period. Wind is generating 1,675 MW against total demand of 1,589 MW — supply exceeding native load — with gas CCGT at just 83 MW providing marginal balancing. This supply surplus relative to demand is the direct driver of negative pricing, and it mirrors the pattern seen since around 10:00 AEST when prices fell sharply from a morning peak that reached $158/MWh at 21:20 AEST and $131/MWh at 21:25 AEST as demand pushed through 1,920–2,110 MW during the winter morning peak.

The day's demand trajectory tells the full price story. Demand troughed at approximately 1,133 MW around 14:25–14:30 AEST during the deep overnight trough, then climbed steadily through the pre-dawn period. The morning peak — running from roughly 17:30 AEST through to 20:30 AEST — drove demand above 2,100 MW and sustained prices between $50/MWh and $158/MWh for an extended period, with notable spikes to $105–$158/MWh at 18:05–18:10 AEST and 19:20 AEST reflecting tight supply margins as gas capacity was dispatched to cover the gap. Demand has since retreated sharply as the morning peak subsided, falling from 2,109 MW at 19:40 AEST to the current 1,589 MW, with prices collapsing back into negative territory as wind output holds firm and demand drops away.

Forecast pricing for the remainder of today's morning period points to prices staying near or below zero through until around 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC), with AEMO pre-dispatch consistently forecasting -$1 to -$2/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval. Prices are then expected to lift into the $4–$7/MWh range at 07:30 AEST and step up further into the $17–$20/MWh range from 08:00 AEST onward as today's morning demand ramp accelerates. Load windows confirm negative-priced opportunities extend deep into tonight's overnight period (06:30–10:30 AEST tomorrow), with forecast prices at -$3 to -$5/MWh through the 01:00–05:00 AEST window, consistent with the structural overnight demand trough and sustained wind output.

Demand-side risk today centres on the pace and magnitude of the morning ramp. At 11.3°C ambient with 6.7 kW/m² heating demand and forecast maximum of only 13.6°C, space heating load will build through the morning, replicating the same demand pressure that pushed SA above 2,100 MW during this morning's peak. Traders and flexibility operators should note the transition zone around 07:30–08:00 AEST where prices shift from negative to $17+/MWh within a single half-hour period — the demand ramp from roughly 1,500 MW to a forecast 1,900+ MW will be the trigger. Weather for Friday shows elevated cloud cover (60%) limiting solar contribution, keeping the afternoon demand trough shallower