Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 3 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits in a wide band this morning, with Tasmania at 0.00 tCO2/MWh and 100% renewable on hydro and wind, and South Australia at just 0.023 tCO2/MWh with 95.3% renewable — almost entirely wind-driven at 1,675 MW with negligible gas backup (83 MW CCGT, 0.1 MW OCGT). At the other end, Queensland is at 0.670 tCO2/MWh with renewables contributing only 22.4% of output; the mix is dominated by 4,675 MW of black coal alongside 357 MW of gas OCGT, with wind (648 MW), hydro (300 MW), and battery (501 MW) making up the balance. Victoria sits at 0.672 tCO2/MWh despite 45% renewable penetration — 2,961 MW of wind is running alongside 3,811 MW of brown coal, and the coal-to-renewables ratio keeps intensity elevated. NSW is at 0.541 tCO2/MWh with 38.4% renewables; 4,915 MW of black coal dominates, partially offset by 2,158 MW of wind, 486 MW of hydro, and 336 MW of battery discharge.

Looking at today's trajectory from the interval data, NSW showed its lowest intensity window between roughly 07:00–10:00 AEST, where intensity dipped to 0.340–0.354 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration reaching 61%. That overnight-to-early-morning period is when wind output is strongest relative to demand and coal dispatch is lightest — a pattern that has already passed for today. SA has maintained near-constant intensity below 0.025 tCO2/MWh throughout the entire 24-hour dataset with no material deviation, meaning it offers a persistent green window at any hour. Queensland's intensity has been rising steadily through the day, peaking above 0.74 tCO2/MWh in the 06:00–07:00 AEST window, and the evening period from 05:30 AEST onward shows renewable penetration collapsing below 20% as solar drops to near zero and coal holds its baseload position.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling, SA is the clear low-intensity region at any time of day — loads that can access SA's grid or procure against it face sub-0.025 tCO2/MWh conditions consistently. In NSW, the optimal window has passed; intensity is now tracking 0.54 tCO2/MWh and is likely to hold in the 0.52–0.56 tCO2/MWh range through the evening peak as wind moderates and coal maintains output. Victoria's intensity is nudging higher at the current interval (0.672 tCO2/MWh versus 0.552 tCO2/MWh at 02:30 AEST), and the step-up in the final data point suggests brown coal dispatch is increasing into the evening. Queensland offers no near-term low-intensity window; with solar at effectively zero and renewable penetration in the mid-teens to low-twenties through the evening, intensity will remain above 0.65 tCO2/MWh. Tasmania remains at zero intensity for the full dataset and continues to do so.