Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 2 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $97.96/MWh with demand at 6,618 MW as of 06:30 AEST — well off the morning peak but tracking upward through the evening ramp. The day's demand profile has followed a textbook winter weekday pattern: an overnight trough around 3,976 MW (circa 12:00 AEST), a sharp morning ramp that pushed demand to 7,685 MW by 17:40 AEST with prices spiking to $147.91/MWh, then a mid-afternoon plateau in the 5,400–5,700 MW range with prices settling into the $65–$85/MWh band. The current reading marks the start of the evening demand climb, with demand up roughly 1,300 MW from the afternoon low and prices responding in step — rising from $65–$67/MWh at 17:00 AEST to the current $97.96/MWh as demand crosses back above 6,600 MW. Price sensitivity is pronounced at this demand level: each increment above ~6,800 MW during the morning peak consistently pushed prices above $110/MWh, with the $147–$159/MWh ceiling appearing at demand of 7,500–7,685 MW. That relationship is likely to repeat in tonight's evening peak.

AEMO's pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) are clustered at $97.97–$123.57/MWh, signalling that the market is pricing in a further demand lift toward the 6,800–7,200 MW range as residential heating load builds on a cold Brisbane evening (current temperature 13.6°C, heating demand index 4.4). Overnight weather is clear with near-zero wind potential, which limits wind contribution beyond the current 1,008 MW and keeps dispatchable generation on the margin. A non-conformance notice on MPP_2 (Millmerran) for a −26 MW deviation earlier today is resolved; no active QLD network constraints are in effect, leaving no binding transmission barriers to the evening dispatch stack. The generation mix — 4,503 MW black coal, 1,008 MW wind, 408 MW battery, 157 MW gas OCGT, 115 MW hydro — provides adequate headroom, but battery capacity will tighten as state-of-charge depletes through the peak.

The demand trajectory from here points toward 6,800–7,200 MW by 08:30–09:30 AEST before a gradual taper toward midnight, when the overnight trough will again suppress prices to the $20–$40/MWh range. Flexible load operators and battery assets should note the clear arbitrage window: pre-dispatch load windows project prices at $38–$55/MWh from 08:30 AEST (22:30 UTC) and sub-$10/MWh (including negative pricing) from around 11:00–15:30 AEST as overnight demand collapses below 4,500 MW and solar begins to contribute. The price-demand relationship today confirms the threshold of approximately 6,800 MW as the inflection point above which Queensland prices consistently clear above $90/MWh — that threshold is likely to be tested again within the next two to three dispatch intervals.