Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 2 June 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM at 06:30 AEST spans a wide range. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 787 MW and wind at 41 MW covering the entire regional load. South Australia is at 0.02 tCO2/MWh with 95.6% renewables, driven by 1,779 MW of wind with only 81 MW of gas CCGT and 0.11 MW of gas OCGT in the mix. At the other end, Queensland records the highest intensity at 0.66 tCO2/MWh, where black coal accounts for 4,503 MW against just 1,008 MW of wind, 408 MW of battery dispatch, and 115 MW of hydro, holding renewable penetration at 24.7%. New South Wales sits at 0.54 tCO2/MWh with 38.3% renewables — 4,749 MW of black coal dominates, partially offset by 2,028 MW of wind, 500 MW of hydro, 332 MW of battery, and 100 MW of solar. Victoria records 0.54 tCO2/MWh with 55.4% renewables; 3,675 MW of wind is the largest single contributor, but 2,996 MW of brown coal keeps intensity elevated.

The data series through the preceding overnight period shows that NSW and QLD both tracked their lowest intensity levels between roughly 21:30 and 05:30 AEST, when overnight wind output was elevated and demand was suppressed. NSW touched 0.47 tCO2/MWh at around 11:30 AEST overnight, while QLD reached as low as 0.44 tCO2/MWh near 14:25–14:55 AEST overnight (04:25–04:55 UTC). Victoria's intensity was highest in the pre-dawn window around 03:30–07:30 AEST at 0.74–0.80 tCO2/MWh, and has since improved to 0.54 tCO2/MWh as wind output strengthened into the morning. SA has held near-constant across the entire period, ranging only 0.016–0.022 tCO2/MWh, confirming it as the consistently lowest-intensity mainland region regardless of time of day.

For carbon-sensitive loads scheduling activity through the rest of today, SA and TAS remain open green windows at all hours — SA's wind resource is stable and there is no signal of deterioration in the series data. In NSW and VIC, intensity is currently at or near the lower end of today's range; with no solar contribution materialising (solar in NSW at 100 MW and VIC at 0 MW reflects the winter morning), intensity is unlikely to improve materially through the morning peak as demand rises and thermal plant holds its position. The window of lowest mainland intensity in NSW and VIC is likely already open now and may narrow through the 08:00–13:00 AEST demand ramp before any afternoon wind improvement. QLD shows no near-term pathway to a low-intensity window given coal's structural share at ~70% of regional generation through daylight hours; carbon-sensitive scheduling in QLD is best deferred to the post-midnight window when demand and coal dispatch ease.