Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 1 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $111.11/MWh with demand at 6,841 MW as of 06:30 AEST — the region is tracking through its evening ramp-up following a clear overnight trough. The demand trajectory across today tells the full story: the grid bottomed at roughly 3,847 MW around 11:30–12:30 AEST (deep overnight), climbed steadily through the morning peak to 7,705 MW at 17:45 AEST, eased through the afternoon to a mid-period low near 5,350–5,430 MW between 14:00–17:00 AEST, and is now ascending again through the post-18:00 AEST evening demand rebuild. The price response to these demand shifts has been sharp: the overnight trough produced spot prices as low as $0.80/MWh, the morning peak drove sustained pricing above $130/MWh with spikes to $231.73/MWh between roughly 21:30–22:00 AEST, and the mid-afternoon softening pulled prices back to the $78–$105/MWh range before the current evening climb reset prices above $100/MWh.

The price sensitivity to demand in Queensland today is pronounced at both ends of the range. Each ~1,000 MW step up in demand from overnight lows to the morning peak corresponded to roughly a $40–$60/MWh price escalation per band, with the steepest price leverage occurring above 7,000 MW where marginal plant — gas OCGT at 678 MW and battery at 360 MW — clears the market. Black coal at 4,651 MW provides the volume base, but it is the peaking fleet that sets the clearing price under elevated demand. The most notable price dislocation occurred around 10:15–11:55 AEST (20:15–21:55 UTC) when prices ran $183–$231/MWh against demand of approximately 6,850–7,100 MW, suggesting tight supply conditions or constrained dispatch independent of raw demand volume — consistent with a winter morning where commercial and industrial load ramps hard and thermal plant is fully committed.

For the remainder of today, the demand trajectory is the key price driver. Demand is currently rising from 6,841 MW and the recent forecast series for the 07:00 AEST half-hour interval points to $122.40/MWh, stepping down from earlier forecasts of $230–$338/MWh for that same interval as PASA refined its view through the trading day — a meaningful convergence that suggests the supply-demand balance is tighter than the early-morning forecasts implied but not as extreme as the intraday peaks. With overnight temperatures at 8.1°C and a heating demand index of 9.9, the evening demand curve will sustain elevated load through 20:00–22:00 AEST. The forecast load window data shows prices easing to the $35–$76/MWh range from 08:00 AEST onwards (UTC+10), indicating the market anticipates relief as overnight demand falls away — but traders should expect continued $100–$130/MWh prints until demand retreats below the 6,500 MW threshold, consistent with what was observed during the post-09:00 AEST price easing in the data.