Commodity Demand — NSW1: Monday 1 June 2026

NSW spot sits at $61.33/MWh with total demand at 8,468 MW as of 06:30 AEST, placing the state in the ascending phase of its morning ramp. The overnight trough reached as low as 6,054 MW around 03:55 AEST with prices dropping to sub-$15/MWh — the correlation between demand and price across today's profile is tight and well-behaved. This morning's ramp from ~6,100 MW at the nadir to the current 8,468 MW has pulled prices up from single digits to the low $60s, tracking the typical winter demand shape driven by heating load in 10.2°C conditions and a heating demand index of 7.8. Today's peak of 10,634 MW occurred at 18:45 AEST (07:45 UTC), where prices briefly touched $102.48/MWh at 18:35 AEST before softening as dispatchable capacity caught up with the ramp. The price-demand relationship through the morning peak was notably elastic: each 500 MW increment above 9,500 MW added roughly $10–20/MWh to the spot, reflecting the steepening supply stack at high dispatch levels.

Demand is now declining from the morning peak and the trajectory points to a mid-morning trough in the 8,000–8,500 MW range before the evening ramp begins around 19:00–20:00 AEST. Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST target interval are clustered tightly between $60.56 and $67.88/MWh, indicating the market expects demand to settle in a moderate range through the late morning before the next uplift. Today's weather outlook — a max of 18°C and 56% average cloud cover — constrains solar output (average solar potential rated 1/10), which removes a demand-suppression mechanism that typically flattens the midday trough in warmer months. Wind potential is rated 11.6/10 average for the day, and current wind generation is already contributing 1,885 MW, which is providing meaningful volume at the lower end of the dispatch stack and helping contain prices in the current demand window.

A market notice factor worth monitoring is the negative settlement residue constraint on the VIC1–NSW1 interconnector, which was active from 18:20 AEST before ceasing at 20:00 AEST. While no longer operating, this constraint restricted Victorian imports into NSW during the evening peak period, tightening local supply at a moment when demand was above 9,500 MW and contributing to the price spikes seen between $83 and $102/MWh in that window. With the constraint now lifted, the interconnector is operating without that restriction, which gives NSW access to fuller interstate supply volumes heading into the next demand escalation tonight. The evening peak tonight — likely to commence around 19:30–20:00 AEST as temperatures drop and heating load returns — should be watched closely; load windows show forecast prices clustering in the $35–45/MWh range through the overnight trough (09:00–11:00 AEST), before the same winter-shaped ramp profile reasserts itself after 20:00 AEST.