Carbon Forecast: Monday 1 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at a wide spread this morning, ranging from 0.00 tCO2/MWh in Tasmania to 0.69 tCO2/MWh in Queensland at the 06:30 AEST interval. South Australia is at 0.02 tCO2/MWh with 95.5% renewable penetration, driven almost entirely by 1,704 MW of wind with negligible gas output. Tasmania holds 100% renewable generation across hydro and wind, consistent across the entire dataset. Victoria is at 0.58 tCO2/MWh with 52.7% renewables — 3,600 MW of wind is running alongside 3,234 MW of brown coal, producing a split mix. NSW sits at 0.58 tCO2/MWh with 34.0% renewables; 5,168 MW of black coal dominates the stack, partially offset by 1,885 MW of wind and 639 MW of hydro. Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.69 tCO2/MWh with only 18.6% renewables — 4,652 MW of black coal and 679 MW of gas OCGT make up the bulk of the stack, with wind contributing just 545 MW.

The trajectory through today reflects a typical June weekday pattern. Queensland intensity peaked near 0.82 tCO2/MWh between 23:30 and 00:00 AEST (13:30–14:00 UTC) as renewables dropped to around 2–4% penetration, and has since eased as wind recovers overnight. NSW followed a similar arc, touching 0.69 tCO2/MWh around 21:30 AEST before improving. Victoria's intensity climbed above 0.88 tCO2/MWh early in the overnight period when wind was lower, but wind has since ramped strongly, pushing the region's renewable share above 52%. SA has remained exceptionally stable throughout, holding 95–96% renewables with intensity between 0.017 and 0.025 tCO2/MWh across the entire period — wind output has been consistent with no material gas dispatch required.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the lowest-intensity windows across the NEM are available right now in SA and TAS, where they persist around the clock regardless of time of day given current wind and hydro dispatch levels. In NSW and Victoria, the overnight-to-early-morning window (roughly 02:00–09:30 AEST) consistently delivered the best intensity readings — NSW reached as low as 0.44 tCO2/MWh at 09:25 AEST and Victoria dipped to 0.56 tCO2/MWh around 12:25 AEST. Queensland offers no comparable green window in the current data; intensity remains above 0.69 tCO2/MWh through the evening and is unlikely to improve materially until overnight wind picks up. Loads in QLD1 with flexibility to shift to late-overnight intervals (01:00–05:00 AEST) will capture the best available intensity for that region, which historically tracks toward the mid-0.45 tCO2/MWh range when wind penetration reaches 47–52%.