Carbon Forecast: Saturday 30 May 2026

NEM carbon intensity at 06:30 AEST sits at stark contrast across regions. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — entirely hydro (578 MW) and wind (408 MW). South Australia is the next lowest at 0.025 tCO2/MWh with 95% renewable penetration, driven by 1,188 MW of wind with only 62 MW of gas CCGT and a trace of OCGT keeping intensity above zero. At the other end, Victoria sits at 0.680 tCO2/MWh with 44% renewables — 2,604 MW of wind running alongside 3,275 MW of brown coal, and no solar contribution at this hour. Queensland is at 0.666 tCO2/MWh with just 23% renewables, its mix dominated by 3,902 MW of black coal and 173 MW of gas OCGT. NSW is at 0.650 tCO2/MWh with 26% renewables, where 4,673 MW of black coal sets the intensity floor and 928 MW of wind provides the primary renewable contribution.

The trajectory through today reflects a winter Sunday pattern with limited solar uplift. Data across the past 24 hours shows NSW intensity troughed around 0.425–0.438 tCO2/MWh between 14:30–15:30 AEST (midnight to 01:30 UTC) when wind generation was stronger and coal dispatch eased. Victoria followed a similar overnight low near 0.627 tCO2/MWh around 13:00 AEST. Queensland recorded its cleanest window around 0.407 tCO2/MWh near 09:25 AEST (overnight), with wind contributing above 50% briefly. Both NSW and QLD then deteriorated through the morning peak as thermal dispatch lifted, with intensity reaching daily highs of 0.655–0.709 tCO2/MWh in the early afternoon AEST period.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling windows on the mainland today are in SA and TAS at any hour — SA has held below 0.025 tCO2/MWh consistently across the past 24 hours and that is expected to persist given sustained wind output. On the NSW and QLD grids, the lowest-intensity windows tend to occur between roughly 23:00 and 06:00 AEST when overnight wind generation is at its relative peak and demand is lower, pushing renewables above 45–52% penetration. Today's Sunday demand profile — lower industrial load than weekdays — may provide a modest additional improvement in those overnight windows, but with solar output negligible in May, any daytime improvement in NSW or QLD will depend entirely on wind dispatch. VIC intensity is unlikely to drop materially below 0.62–0.63 tCO2/MWh while brown coal provides the generation baseload, with the next low window expected around 18:00–20:00 AEST if wind holds at current levels.