Carbon Forecast: Friday 29 May 2026

The NEM's carbon intensity picture at 06:30 AEST is sharply split across regions. Tasmania sits at 0 tCO₂/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro (774 MW) and wind (178 MW) covering the entire load. South Australia follows at just 0.015 tCO₂/MWh with 97% renewables, driven almost entirely by wind (1,353 MW) with negligible gas (41 MW CCGT and 0.1 MW OCGT) making up the balance. At the other end of the spectrum, Victoria carries the highest intensity on the NEM at 0.797 tCO₂/MWh with brown coal (3,847 MW) dominating supply and wind (2,027 MW) contributing 35% renewables. NSW sits at 0.635 tCO₂/MWh with black coal (4,431 MW) accounting for the bulk of output and wind (1,425 MW) plus hydro (210 MW) holding renewables at 28%. Queensland is at 0.662 tCO₂/MWh — black coal (4,253 MW) remains the primary source, with wind (966 MW), battery discharge (294 MW), and hydro (137 MW) supporting a 24% renewable share.

Tracing today's trajectory from the overnight data, SA and Tasmania have held consistently low intensity across the full dataset — SA has been running above 96% renewables since approximately 22:30 AEST and has shown no sign of deterioration. NSW reached its daily low intensity of around 0.491 tCO₂/MWh at roughly 15:00 AEST (05:00 UTC) when overnight wind was strongest, before demand-driven thermal dispatch lifted intensity through the morning peak. Victoria followed a similar pattern, touching a trough near 0.777 tCO₂/MWh around 04:30–05:00 AEST. Queensland's intensity climbed steadily from an overnight low near 0.488 tCO₂/MWh to a peak above 0.688 tCO₂/MWh through the late morning and afternoon as solar contribution remained negligible at this time of year and coal dispatch held firm.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable windows today are clear. SA and Tasmania offer effectively continuous green windows and remain the preferred regions for flexible load scheduling throughout Saturday. In NSW and Queensland, the lowest-intensity periods occurred in the early hours (roughly 01:00–06:00 AEST) when wind penetration was highest and thermal dispatch was at minimum. With no solar contribution of consequence in May, there is no midday solar dip to exploit in those regions — intensity in NSW and QLD is now tracking higher and is likely to remain in the 0.62–0.70 tCO₂/MWh range through the evening peak before easing again post-midnight. Victoria's intensity, while moderating from its overnight highs above 1.0 tCO₂/MWh, remains elevated relative to the rest of the NEM; the late evening trend toward 0.797 tCO₂/MWh represents an improvement but is still the least favourable region for emission-sensitive scheduling. Loads with interstate flexibility should prioritise SA and TAS; those locked to NSW or QLD should target the post-midnight to pre-dawn window on Sunday morning.