Carbon Forecast: Thursday 28 May 2026

The NEM's carbon intensity picture at 06:25 AEST is sharply divergent across regions. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration, running entirely on hydro with a negligible wind contribution of 5 MW — this has been the case continuously through the night. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.22 tCO2/MWh with 63.9% renewables, driven by 945 MW of wind against 534 MW of combined gas (OCGT 370 MW, CCGT 164 MW). SA's intensity has been trending down through the early morning hours — from around 0.51 tCO2/MWh at 07:00 AEST yesterday to the current reading — suggesting wind output is strengthening into the morning. Victoria carries the highest intensity on the NEM at 1.03 tCO2/MWh, with only 10.8% renewables. The mix is dominated by 4,357 MW of brown coal supplemented by 542 MW of gas OCGT, leaving wind at 577 MW as the sole material renewable contributor. VIC1 has held between 1.03 and 1.11 tCO2/MWh across the entire dataset with no meaningful inflection points.

NSW and Queensland are tracking close to each other in the mid-range. NSW sits at 0.69 tCO2/MWh with 21.3% renewables — 5,854 MW of black coal dominates, with hydro (1,005 MW) and wind (578 MW) providing the balance; gas is offline. Queensland is at 0.67 tCO2/MWh with 22.4% renewables, where 4,864 MW of black coal is complemented by 1,195 MW of wind, 375 MW of gas OCGT, 204 MW of battery discharge, and 116 MW of hydro. Both regions show intensity rising through the day as overnight wind contributions ease and thermal plant responds to morning demand — NSW reached its intraday high of 0.69 tCO2/MWh in the 23:30–00:00 UTC period (09:30–10:00 AEST), and QLD peaked near 0.68–0.69 tCO2/MWh across the afternoon, consistent with demand-driven coal ramp-up.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the clearest scheduling opportunities today are in Tasmania (intensity is zero and stable all day — load shifting here is unconstrained by emissions) and South Australia, where the current morning wind strength is producing the lowest gas-era intensity readings in the dataset. SA's best window through the dataset ran from approximately 05:00–06:25 AEST (19:00–20:25 UTC), with intensity between 0.22 and 0.25 tCO2/MWh and renewables above 56%. If wind holds at current levels through the morning, SA will remain well below 0.30 tCO2/MWh. NSW and QLD offer a moderate pre-dawn window — both regions saw their lowest intensities between 14:30 and 16:30 AEST overnight (04:30–06:30 UTC) when wind was strongest relative to load, with NSW dipping to 0.54 tCO2/MWh and QLD to 0.53 tCO2/MWh — but