Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

The NSW1 spot price sits at $161.92/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the $96–$111/MWh range that dominated the midday and afternoon periods. Demand stands at 7,833 MW and is climbing — the past 30 minutes saw prices spike from $129/MWh to $194.55/MWh before easing back to the current level, reflecting the typical winter evening ramp as temperatures sit at 14.7°C with full cloud cover driving a heating demand signal of 3.3. The 24-hour trading session shows a clear price trough between 09:15 AEST ($42.20/MWh) and the mid-afternoon solar shoulder, before the sustained evening escalation that began around 06:00 AEST and has not yet resolved.

Black coal dominates the generation mix at 5,718 MW (approximately 73% of the 7,164 MW total metered supply). Hydro contributes 1,019 MW (13%), wind is generating 399 MW (5%), battery dispatch adds 27 MW, and solar is effectively offline at 1.3 MW given after-dark conditions. Both gas OCGT and CCGT are at zero output in this interval. Renewable penetration sits at 20.18% at the current interval, down from a high of around 29.7% recorded in the early hours when wind was stronger relative to overall demand. Carbon intensity is 0.7024 tCO2/MWh, having risen from a low of approximately 0.619 tCO2/MWh around 12:30 AEST; the trend through the evening has been upward as demand grows and renewables contribute a smaller share of a larger pool.

Pre-dispatch forecasts signal continued price pressure into the evening. The 07:30 AEST target period (21:30 UTC) carries a forecast of $231.72/MWh across the two most recent predispatch runs, with the prior run also at $231.72/MWh — an unusually tight consensus suggesting AEMO's dispatch engine sees limited flexibility in that window. The 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) target shows forecasts ranging from $134.89/MWh to $198.08/MWh across successive runs, indicating uncertainty in the 22:00–23:00 AEST window before prices are expected to ease back toward the $97–$130/MWh band through the overnight period (23:30 AEST onward). Traders should note the predispatch path for the 06:30 AEST (20:30 UTC) window was consistently revised upward through the afternoon, which ultimately materialised — the same pattern is playing out now for the 07:30 AEST interval.

Two active market notices are relevant to NSW1 operations today. AEMO's constraint notice 144142 advises that Murraylink dynamic rating forecast constraints (VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN and SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN) are being enabled in pre-dispatch and PASA at 10:00 AEST this morning — this affects the VIC1–NSW1 interconnector flow modelling and may shift dispatch outcomes on the NSW–Victoria boundary from mid-morning. The Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage in Victoria (notice 144141, constraint set V-KOWE)