Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 26 May 2026

At 06:30 AEST, NEM-wide carbon intensity varies sharply across regions. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 1,067 MW and wind at 149 MW account for the entire dispatch stack. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.39 tCO2/MWh with 31% renewables; wind (296 MW) is the primary zero-emissions source, but gas OCGT (351 MW) and CCGT (378 MW) together dominate the SA mix at this hour. NSW and QLD are mid-range at 0.70 and 0.72 tCO2/MWh respectively, with black coal the dominant fuel in both regions — 5,718 MW in NSW and 4,981 MW in QLD — and renewables contributing only 20% and 16%. Victoria is the highest-intensity region on the NEM at 0.99 tCO2/MWh, with brown coal at 4,666 MW comprising the bulk of generation and renewables at 17%, primarily wind at 1,017 MW.

Looking at today's trajectory across the dataset, SA recorded its lowest intensity window between approximately 13:00–17:00 AEST, where intensity fell to 0.20–0.21 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration reaching 62–66% — wind-driven, not solar, given the winter month. NSW intensity trended lowest overnight around 02:30 AEST (0.62 tCO2/MWh, 30% renewables) and is currently at its evening plateau, where it has been holding around 0.70 tCO2/MWh since the morning peak. QLD followed a similar pattern, with its overnight trough around 0.60 tCO2/MWh at 10:30–11:30 AEST and now rising into the evening above 0.72 tCO2/MWh. Victoria's intensity has climbed steadily through the afternoon and evening from a mid-morning low of approximately 0.73 tCO2/MWh toward its current 0.99 tCO2/MWh as brown coal and gas OCGT hold the evening load.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the clearest green windows for today's remainder are limited. Tasmania offers zero-intensity supply continuously. SA's favourable midday wind window has passed, and with intensity now at 0.39 tCO2/MWh and rising as wind drops back, the overnight period is unlikely to match the 0.20 tCO2/MWh lows seen this afternoon. NSW and QLD carbon-sensitive scheduling should target early morning hours (00:00–06:00 AEST) when overnight thermal cycling and wind generation push renewable penetration above 25–30% and intensity dips toward 0.60–0.63 tCO2/MWh — the best available windows on those interconnected grids for loads unable to access Tasmanian or SA supply directly.