Regional Outlook — NSW1: Monday 25 May 2026

The NSW1 spot price sits at $120.90/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 7,796 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours of settlement data, prices were broadly in the $72–$116/MWh range through the overnight trough and mid-morning, before climbing sharply into the evening peak where intervals reached $133–$138/MWh between 17:15 and 18:30 AEST. The current price therefore represents a sustained evening ramp, tracking well above the approximate 24-hour average of ~$96/MWh. Temperature sits at 15.2°C with full cloud cover and near-zero wind, driving a heating demand signal of 2.8 and suppressing solar output entirely — consistent with a typical late-autumn evening demand profile.

The generation mix at the latest interval (06:30 AEST trading period) is dominated by black coal at 6,222.73 MW, followed by hydro at 868.36 MW, battery discharge at 263.08 MW, wind at 318.90 MW, and rooftop/utility solar at 18.05 MW. Both gas OCGT and CCGT are at 0 MW. Total scheduled generation sits around 7,691 MW against demand of 7,796 MW, with the balance likely covered by interconnector flows. Renewables — wind, solar, and hydro combined — are contributing approximately 1,205 MW, or around 15–19% of the generation stack. The latest carbon intensity reading is 0.712 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 19.09%, a material step-down from the overnight low of 0.532 tCO2/MWh and ~39.6% renewable penetration recorded in the early hours when coal backing was lighter. The evening demand surge, absence of solar, and low wind potential today (forecast average wind potential of 0.2) are keeping intensity elevated.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) converge tightly in the $121–$122/MWh range from the most recent runs, having drifted down from an earlier high-side estimate of $133.56/MWh issued around 01:31 AEST. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) carries more spread in the forecast record — runs have printed between $120 and $138/MWh — with the most recent estimate at $125.78/MWh. This indicates the market expects prices to remain elevated through at least the 07:00–08:00 AEST window before demand eases. Overnight intervals from 08:30 AEST onward are forecast broadly in the $84–$103/MWh range, consistent with post-peak demand unwind.

The most operationally relevant active notice for NSW1 is Market Notice 144141, which flags a short-notice outage of the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line in Victoria invoked at 11:30 AEST on 25 May, activating constraint set V-KOWE. This set includes the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector on the left-hand side, meaning northward transfer capability from Victoria into NSW may be constrained and could be contributing to the elevated NSW price. Separately, Market Notice 144142 advises that AEMO will enable dynamic rating forecasting on the