Carbon Forecast: Sunday 24 May 2026

NEM carbon intensity at 06:25 AEST sits at opposite extremes across the five regions. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation, driven entirely by hydro (1,202 MW) and a minor contribution from wind (21 MW) — this has been consistent across the entire dataset period. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.10 tCO2/MWh with 83% renewables, where wind is generating 1,525 MW and gas (OCGT 190 MW, CCGT 119 MW) provides the balance. At the other end, Victoria sits at 1.02 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 17% — brown coal at 4,565 MW dominates the mix, with wind contributing 727 MW and batteries 184 MW, and no gas or solar in dispatch. NSW reads 0.71 tCO2/MWh at 19% renewables, with black coal at 6,055 MW the dominant source alongside hydro at 915 MW and wind at 397 MW. Queensland is at 0.75 tCO2/MWh on 13% renewables, with black coal at 4,721 MW, gas OCGT at 484 MW, and wind at 461 MW.

The intraday trajectory in the data is instructive for today's outlook. All mainland regions show their lowest intensity readings in the overnight window (07:00–09:00 AEST) when wind output is elevated, before intensity climbs through the morning as demand rises and thermal plant loads up. SA reached as low as 0.04 tCO2/MWh in that window on sustained wind. NSW dropped to 0.52 tCO2/MWh and QLD to 0.46 tCO2/MWh in the same period. Intensity then peaks in the mid-to-late morning business hours — NSW touched 0.74 tCO2/MWh and QLD 0.77 tCO2/MWh around 01:00–02:00 AEST — before easing slightly into the afternoon as solar contributes marginally and wind holds up.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, Tasmania and South Australia offer the clearest low-intensity windows across all hours, with TAS at zero intensity throughout and SA unlikely to breach 0.15 tCO2/MWh while wind remains strong. On the mainland, the best windows for NSW and QLD are in the pre-dawn and late-evening periods (roughly 08:00–10:00 AEST and again after 04:00 AEST the following morning) when thermal dispatch eases and wind penetration lifts toward 40–46%. Victoria's intensity structure is heavily tied to brown coal baseload and is forecast to remain above 0.90 tCO2/MWh for most of the day, with the 08:00–09:30 AEST window offering the modest dip seen in today's data (down to around 0.92 tCO2/MWh) as the only meaningful relief. Flexibility managers with interruptible loads in NSW or QLD should target dispatch scheduling before 09:00 AEST to capture the lowest-intensity window of the day.