Carbon Forecast: Friday 22 May 2026

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro (925 MW) and wind (208 MW) accounting for the entire dispatch stack. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.0154 tCO2/MWh with 96.86% renewables, driven by 1,323 MW of wind and a negligible 43 MW of gas CCGT providing the residual. Both regions have sustained these near-zero intensity readings throughout the day and that pattern holds through the evening hours with no material change expected.

NSW sits at 0.5685 tCO2/MWh (35.4% renewable) with 4,035 MW of black coal providing the bulk of supply, offset partially by 1,595 MW of wind and 573 MW of hydro. The intensity data shows NSW traced its low point overnight around 02:30–05:30 AEST (0.43–0.45 tCO2/MWh, ~49–51% renewable) before climbing as demand rose through the morning peak. Current evening levels are retreating from the day's high of 0.64 tCO2/MWh recorded around 12:30–13:00 AEST. Queensland is the highest-intensity mainland region at 0.6947 tCO2/MWh with just 20.47% renewable penetration — 4,364 MW of black coal and 128 MW of gas OCGT dominate supply, with 997 MW of wind providing the renewables contribution. QLD reached its daily peak intensity above 0.76 tCO2/MWh during the 15:30–16:00 AEST window. Victoria sits at 0.8846 tCO2/MWh (27.49% renewable), with 4,628 MW of brown coal underpinning the grid and 1,749 MW of wind partially offsetting it; Victoria's intensity peaked above 1.09 tCO2/MWh at the morning demand ramp around 06:00–06:30 AEST.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling, SA and Tasmania offer continuous green windows around the clock today. On the mainland, the overnight trough between approximately 01:00 and 06:00 AEST has historically been the lowest-intensity window for NSW and QLD, when thermal output eases and wind generation holds up — NSW renewable penetration touched 51% in that band today. Through the remaining evening hours, NSW intensity continues its modest decline from the afternoon peak, and a similar trajectory is visible in QLD and VIC as evening demand softens. No solar contribution is present in any region at this hour, so overnight intensity will be determined entirely by wind dispatch levels and thermal commitment. Carbon-sensitive loads in the mainland NEM should target the post-midnight to pre-dawn window (01:00–05:30 AEST) for the lowest achievable intensity, with SA available as a near-zero option if load can be directed there via interconnector-aware scheduling.