Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 21 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $105.18/MWh against a demand of 1,305 MW as of 06:35 AEST. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, today's level is broadly in line with the overnight baseline of ~$100–$103/MWh but elevated compared to the sustained afternoon trough — prices dipped to $87.18/MWh across multiple intervals between 16:30 and 18:00 AEST before climbing steadily through the evening as demand rose from ~1,080 MW to the current 1,305 MW. Isolated price spikes punctuated both morning and evening periods, with a peak of $164.58/MWh recorded at 06:00 AEST (20:00 UTC) and transient excursions above $150/MWh also evident at 06:45 AEST ($153.79/MWh) and 07:20 AEST ($159.08/MWh), indicating intermittent dispatch tightness during the morning demand ramp.
The generation mix is 100% renewable at the latest interval (06:30 AEST), with hydro contributing 1,284 MW and wind 27.56 MW against total demand of ~1,305 MW. Gas OCGT sits at 0 MW. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100% — a position that has been maintained for virtually the entire 24-hour period, with only brief departures to 96–98% during the morning window around 07:00–09:30 AEST when minor gas dispatch appears reflected in intensity readings of 0.02–0.025 tCO2/MWh. Weather conditions are 7.2°C with 64% cloud cover and minimal wind (9.8 km/h), consistent with negligible solar contribution and suppressed wind output for the time of year; heating demand sits at 10.8 units and will sustain load through the day as the maximum temperature reaches only 16.3°C.
Predispatch forecasts for the next trading period (07:00 AEST, target 21:00 UTC) sit at $112.89/MWh per the most recent run, stepping back toward $105–$107/MWh for the 07:30–08:00 AEST window and settling in the $105–$106/MWh range through to the early morning hours. Overnight off-peak windows (12:00–04:30 AEST) are forecast at $87–$97/MWh, with the 03:00–05:30 AEST block clustered tightly around $87.12/MWh — the clearest low-cost window available today. The 21:30 AEST half-hour carries a notably wide forecast range across predispatch runs, from $113 to as high as $234/MWh in earlier runs, settling around $105–$111/MWh in more recent iterations; this spread warrants caution for any scheduled load in that window.
No active AEMO market notices directly affect TAS1. The most operationally relevant notice for today is CHG0109708: EMMS Production Systems transfer to the alternative datacentre commencing 22 May 2026 at 08:00 AEST, with a one-hour outage window flagged for 26 May between 18:00–19:00