Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 19 May 2026

The spot price sits at $96.18/MWh with total demand at 1,100 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Over the past 24 hours, prices have been broadly anchored around the $96.18–$96.22/MWh band for the majority of intervals, with episodic spikes into the $110–$125/MWh range clustered around the morning ramp (07:00–08:00 AEST) and scattered through afternoon and early evening trading. The overnight trough saw prices dip to the low-to-mid $60s/MWh between approximately 15:00 and 17:30 AEST, reflecting weaker overnight demand that troughed near 908 MW. The current 24-hour average sits approximately in the $96–$100/MWh range, suggesting the present price is at the lower end of today's trading band.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is hydro at 915 MW and wind at 312 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. Total scheduled generation is approximately 1,227 MW against demand of 1,100 MW, with the surplus likely flowing north via Basslink into Victoria. Renewable penetration is 100% and carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh, consistent with every 30-minute interval recorded across the full history period — hydro and wind have covered all Tasmanian demand throughout. Temperatures are 7.4°C with 40% cloud cover and low solar potential, keeping heating demand elevated at 10.6 units; today's forecast high of 14.8°C with moderate cloud (53%) suggests demand will remain winter-weighted across the day, with the heating-driven evening peak the key watch point.

Predispatch forecasts are tightly converged at $96.18/MWh for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hour targets, with virtually no spread across the multiple forecast runs issued from 01:00 AEST onwards. The 08:00 AEST target carries a marginal uptick to $96.98/MWh in some runs, and the 09:00–09:30 AEST window shows a modest cluster in the $96.20–$99.45/MWh range. Overnight into tomorrow morning (11:00–13:30 AEST UTC, equating to the 01:00–03:30 AEST window on 20 May), forecasts step down into the $75–$86/MWh range, consistent with the low-demand overnight pattern observed over the past 24 hours. There are no price spikes forecast in the near-term predispatch horizon — the market is not signalling any significant supply stress for Tasmania today.

The two active market system notices relevant to participants relate to EMMS production system maintenance scheduled for 26 May 2026 (18:00–19:00 AEST), during which FPP calculations and the Market Portal may experience intermittent delays, and an Identity Service site transfer on the same date with potential session disruption between 18:00 and 18:15 AEST. Neither affects today's trading. The MT PASA notice published 19 May confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified across the NEM outlook period. No Tasmania-specific reserve, constraint, or power system event notices are active. Traders should note the EMMS datacentre transfer window next Tuesday as a systems risk date