Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 17 May 2026

The TAS1 spot price sits at **$110.22/MWh** at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,163 MW and climbing through the evening ramp. Reviewing the prior 24-hour price history, the region has traded predominantly in a narrow band between $96 and $115/MWh, punctuated by short-lived spikes — the most notable being $350.10/MWh at 14:20–14:25 AEST and $197.42/MWh at 16:00 AEST — both of which cleared within one to two intervals, consistent with brief dispatch constraint events rather than sustained supply pressure. The 24-hour average settles in the low-to-mid $110s/MWh, meaning the current price is broadly in line with the prevailing day's run rate.

The generation mix at 06:20 AEST shows hydro producing **1,251 MW**, wind contributing **16 MW**, and gas OCGT running at **58 MW**, for a combined dispatch of approximately 1,326 MW against reported demand of 1,163 MW — the surplus consistent with Basslink export flows to Victoria. Renewable penetration sits at **95.63%** and carbon intensity registers **0.0284 tCO2/MWh**, well below the NEM average. Over the course of the day, carbon intensity has oscillated between 0.0235 and 0.0373 tCO2/MWh, with gas OCGT the sole emissions source. The afternoon hours saw a modest intensity uptick as OCGT output increased to support the evening ramp, but the 20:20 AEST reading shows intensity retreating as hydro absorbs more of the load growth.

Predispatch forecasts signal a materially higher price environment through this evening. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at **$147/MWh** on the most recent run, with the 07:30 AEST half-hour tracking around **$164–170/MWh** across multiple consecutive predispatch runs. The 08:00–09:30 AEST window carries forecasts in the **$175–280/MWh** range, with considerable run-to-run variance indicating dispatch uncertainty — likely reflecting Basslink flow scheduling and mainland demand conditions through the morning peak. Weather provides limited mitigation: 100% cloud cover eliminates solar input, wind potential is near-zero at 2 km/h, and a heating demand index of 5.1 confirms elevated residential load into the morning. Temperatures are forecast to remain subdued today, maxing at 14.6°C, keeping heating demand elevated.

No active AEMO market notices directly affect TAS1 operations today. The most market-relevant active notice is a **Forecast LOR1 in QLD** from 17:00–19:00 AEST today (MN 144108, updated via MN 144100), with reserve shortfall of 180 MW at last update. While this does not constrain Tasmanian dispatch directly, sustained Queensland tightness through the afternoon peak can increase the value of southbound NEM flows and lift Victorian prices, which in turn influences Basslink scheduling and TAS1 predispatch. Traders should also note the **Murraylink unplanned outage** (MN 144097) remains active, removing the SA–VIC interconnector from service and potentially tightening Victorian