Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 20 May 2026
The Tasmania spot price sits at **$112.21/MWh** at 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around $76–$80/MWh recorded between 14:00–16:00 AEST and well above the 24-hour average of approximately $95/MWh. The evening demand ramp is driving the current uplift, with total demand at **1,288 MW** — near the top of today's range. The single notable price spike across the day occurred at 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) when price hit **$241.72/MWh** briefly before retreating within one interval, consistent with a tight dispatch moment at the onset of the morning ramp. Prices then settled into the $88–$110/MWh band through the business day before re-escalating into the current evening period.
Tasmania's generation mix is entirely emissions-free at this interval. Hydro is delivering **1,437 MW** and wind is contributing **68 MW**, together covering total regional demand with a small surplus available for Basslink export. Carbon intensity sits at **0 tCO2/MWh** with renewable penetration at **100%**, a condition that has held continuously across all recorded intervals today. Gas OCGT capacity is registered in the market but is producing **0 MW**. With overnight temperatures at 6.5°C and a heating demand signal of 11.5 units, the current demand level reflects typical May evening space heating load. Wind resource is weak today (potential rated at 0.6/10) with wind generation at only 68 MW, meaning hydro is carrying essentially all of the dispatch task.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued price elevation through the overnight period. The 07:00 AEST target interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at **$101–$110/MWh** across successive predispatch runs, with the 07:30 AEST interval carrying forecasts ranging from **$106–$156/MWh** — indicating material uncertainty and upside risk as demand peaks. The 08:00–09:00 AEST window (22:00–23:00 UTC) forecasts cluster in the **$112–$125/MWh** range before easing back toward $100/MWh through the early hours of 21 May. The morning peak on 21 May (17:00–20:30 AEST) carries forecasts of **$100–$120/MWh**, consistent with a firm but not extreme winter weekday profile.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1. The most operationally relevant active notice is the **South Morang F2 500/330kV transformer outage in VIC** (constraint set V-SMTX_F_R, in place until 17:00 AEST 22 May), which constrains the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector (Basslink) among others and may limit Tasmania's export capacity into Victoria. Traders should monitor Basslink flow headroom closely, as any binding constraint on northward transfer would reduce the arbitrage pathway and could suppress Tasmanian prices relative to Victorian levels during high-demand intervals. The MT PASA notice confirms no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM for the outlook period. EMMS production systems will be transferred to an alternative datacentre between 04:00–05:00 AEST on 27 May — no market impact is anticipated before then.