What the Quarterly Carbon Market Report tells you about ACCU and SMC supply
The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) publishes the Quarterly Carbon Market Report (QCMR) every three months. It is the most authoritative source of public information on Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) supply, issuance method breakdowns, and surrender activity. For any covered facility, carbon market trader, or sustainability team disclosing under AASB S2, the QCMR is the primary reference document.
The published workbook is dense. It covers ACCU issuance by method, SMC issuance and surrender, spot price series, scheme participation, project counts, and several contextual datasets. The figure numbering has also shifted across workbook versions, which makes year-on-year comparisons easy to get wrong if you treat the figure ID as stable.
This article walks through the report's structure, the figures that matter for compliance and trading decisions, and the seasonal patterns to look for when reading across quarters.
The QCMR is published roughly six to eight weeks after the end of each calendar quarter. The Q1 report typically lands in May, Q2 in August, Q3 in November, and Q4 in February of the following year. The publication lag exists because the CER consolidates issuance and surrender activity that occurred during the quarter, including project verification rounds that close at quarter-end.
Each release includes both the report PDF and a supporting workbook. The workbook is the primary analytical asset — it contains the underlying time-series in tab form, alongside the chart images embedded in the PDF. For anyone modelling supply or pricing scenarios, the workbook is the document worth opening.
Section 1 of the QCMR covers ACCU supply. The figures of practical interest are typically:
A pattern worth flagging: the figure numbering for these series has changed between workbook versions. In older workbooks, Figure 1.3 was ACCU issuance by method; in more recent releases, Figure 1.3 is project counts and the issuance-by-method series moved to Figure 1.2. If you are pulling QCMR data programmatically and trusting the figure ID alone, you can silently end up importing the wrong series.
The fix is to read the series name, not just the figure ID. gridIQ's QCMR ingestion upserts on (figure_id, year, quarter, series_name) for exactly this reason — a re-import from a later workbook overwrites the prior period when the underlying definition has changed, rather than coexisting under the same figure ID with conflicting data.
Section 2 covers SMC supply. SMCs are issued to Safeguard-covered facilities that emit below their baseline, and can be surrendered by other covered facilities to meet compliance obligations. The figures to read are:
Because the Safeguard Mechanism is only into its third year of reformed operation (1 July 2023 onwards), the SMC series is shorter and less seasonally stable than ACCU series. Year-on-year comparisons should be read with that caveat — a single quarter is not yet a reliable trend signal.
The QCMR publishes a quarterly average ACCU spot price drawn from the CER's clearing-house auctions and reference trades. SMC spot prices are reported as separate series, with the spread between ACCU and SMC prices indicating where compliance buyers are sourcing surrender units. The Cost Containment Measure (CCM) ceiling rate is the statutory price cap — when prevailing prices approach the CCM, compliance buyers can surrender CCM units directly rather than buying ACCUs or SMCs at higher prices.
As at the most recent QCMR release tracked by gridIQ, the headline reference prices were approximately:
| Instrument | Price (AUD per tonne CO₂e) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ACCU spot | ~$37 | Reference Q4 2025 average; revisits this band in subsequent QCMRs |
| SMC spot | ~$36 | Reference Q4 2025; usually trades close to ACCU |
| CCM ceiling | $82.68 | FY2025–26 statutory rate; FY2026–27 rate due May 2026 |
Prices shown as approximate reference levels for illustrative purposes. Live prices in gridIQ are drawn from each newly published QCMR.
The spread between ACCU and SMC spot prices, and the headroom to the CCM ceiling, is the single most useful signal in the QCMR for short-horizon surrender decisions. When the spread is narrow and headroom to the CCM is large, surrender flexibility is maximised. When the spread widens or headroom compresses, the choice of surrender instrument starts to matter materially.
Several patterns recur quarter-on-quarter and are worth keeping in mind when reading any single QCMR:
The QCMR workbook is a sound primary source, but treating it as a recurring analytical input is heavy. gridIQ ingests each new QCMR within hours of release and exposes the time-series through Watt AI. Practical things you can ask Watt directly:
Behind each answer, Watt is reading the QCMR time-series ingested from the official workbook — no figure-ID guessing, no series-name reshuffling, and no manual chart screenshots. The synthesis layer also flags definitional changes when a figure ID has shifted between workbook versions, so cross-period comparisons stay honest.
The QCMR is the primary input for any forward view of carbon market supply. Once you can read it, the next question is what to do with the data — and specifically, which surrender instrument to use against a Safeguard compliance shortfall. We work through that decision, with current spot price comparisons and a decision framework, in the third article in this series: Compliance pathways: ACCU vs SMC vs CCM ceiling.
If you have not yet read the first article in the series, the methodology underlying covered facilities' baselines is covered in How Safeguard Mechanism baselines are calculated.
The Safeguard Mechanism Tracker and the QCMR time-series are available on Professional and above. The underlying carbon market data (SMC, ACCU, CCM) is available from Team. A 21-day Professional trial gives you full access to Watt AI and the carbon markets surface with no credit card required.
Start your trial or read more about the Safeguard Mechanism Tracker.