Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 16 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $112.24/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up from a 24-hour average closer to the mid-$90s range that dominated most of the overnight and morning trading window. Prices tracked with notable stability between $96.08–$96.10/MWh for an extended stretch through the 07:00–10:30 AEST period before breaking higher around 20:50 AEST (10:50 UTC) with a spike to $115.16/MWh, then oscillating in the $106–$145/MWh band through the afternoon and evening as dispatch conditions tightened. Total demand sits at 1,019.58 MW — consistent with typical Sunday evening levels for the state in cool autumn conditions, with current temperature at 12°C and heating demand elevated.
The generation mix is entirely emissions-free at this interval. Hydro is supplying 948.42 MW and wind is contributing 106.01 MW, with gas OCGT at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh — a position that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. Wind potential is minimal today at 0.5 and solar potential is zero under 98% cloud cover, meaning hydro is carrying the bulk of the dispatch task and will continue to do so through the day. The forecast outlook for Sunday shows near-total overcast conditions with average wind potential of just 0.2, so the generation mix is unlikely to shift.
Predispatch forecasts are tightly clustered around $110.10–$110.16/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, firming marginally to $110.16–$111.20/MWh through the 08:00–09:30 window, before some forecasts show upside risk in the $125–$132/MWh range for the 09:30–13:00 AEST period — indicating potential tightness as the morning load ramp builds. The most critical notice affecting Tasmania's market context today is the active Murraylink outage (Market Notice 144100), with constraint set I-ML_ZERO invoked at 01:45 AEST. Murraylink's V-S-MNSP1 interconnector is constrained to zero, limiting transfer flexibility between Victoria and South Australia. While Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is the direct interconnector for Tasmania, tightness in the VIC-SA corridor can propagate dispatch constraints into Victoria and flow through to Tasmanian pricing dynamics. Traders should monitor whether the Murraylink outage duration extends further into the morning trading period, as this amplifies price risk across the southern NEM.
No active LOR or reserve notices apply directly to Tasmania. The QLD LOR2 declared for 19 May (06:00–19:30 AEST, 605 MW reserve shortfall against a 760 MW requirement) is a watch item for the broader NEM but has no direct operational impact on TAS1 today. For sustainability managers and grid engineers, Tasmania maintains its 0 tCO2/MWh intensity position indefinitely under current dispatch conditions, with hydro storage the sole price-setting variable worth tracking through the week ahead.