Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 18 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $96.22/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a marked recovery from an extended elevated period overnight that saw prices repeatedly reach $164.20/MWh between approximately 09:30 and 10:15 AEST (UTC+10), before a further spike to $222.61/MWh at around 11:40 AEST. The overnight elevated run lasted roughly three hours with prices sustained above $160/MWh, likely reflecting tighter Basslink transfer conditions or hydro dispatch constraints. The current price represents a return to a stable, sub-$100/MWh range that has held consistently since around 18:10 AEST, with the 24-hour average tracking considerably higher than the present spot due to that overnight volatility.
The generation mix is entirely non-gas at this interval: hydro is producing 1,069 MW and wind is contributing 105 MW, with gas OCGT at 0 MW. Total demand sits at 1,139 MW, meaning the combination of hydro and wind is meeting load in full. Carbon intensity records 0 tCO2/MWh at the latest interval, with renewable penetration at 100% — the data confirms a clean run through the current period. Earlier in the day, the carbon history showed intensity values in the range of 0.025–0.038 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration between 94% and 96%, consistent with a small residual non-renewable component during higher-demand periods. Today's autumn temperature of 10.2°C with cloud cover at 91% and minimal solar potential means hydro and wind are carrying the full load profile without solar contribution, which is typical for Tasmania in May.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval are converging tightly on $96.22/MWh across the majority of the most recent runs, with earlier forecast runs having tested $109.82–$110.06/MWh for the same target. The convergence to the lower value indicates AEMO's predispatch is not anticipating renewed stress in the near-term window. Load opportunity windows through tonight and into tomorrow morning (UTC 01:00–07:00, or AEST 11:00–17:00) show forecast prices broadly in the $70–$95/MWh range, with several intervals rated "excellent" by the optimiser at prices as low as $66–$70/MWh — indicating favourable conditions for flexible and shiftable loads.
No market notices are currently active that directly affect Tasmania. The relevant broader NEM notices on foot relate to a QLD LOR1 condition forecast for 19 May 2026 (06:00–19:30 AEST) where minimum capacity reserve available of 1,012 MW falls short of the 1,197 MW requirement — traders should monitor whether any consequential Basslink export pressure emerges if QLD tightness drives Victorian prices higher and flows through to the TAS-VIC interconnector. The Upper Tumut non-credible contingency event (NSW, 17 May) has been resolved per Notice 144117, removing any residual NEM-wide frequency concern. Murraylink remains on outage per Notice 144097 (constraint set I-ML_ZERO active), which removes the SA-VIC link and has the potential to influence Victorian pricing dynamics upstream of Tasmania.