Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 21 May 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $103.44/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,442 MW. Over the past 24 hours prices tracked significantly higher, frequently clustering in the $125–$160/MWh range during the morning peak (06:00–08:00 AEST) and touching $198/MWh at 16:00 AEST, before moderating through the afternoon and evening as demand eased. The current $103.44/MWh print represents a meaningful softening from that earlier elevated band, though it sits above the quieter overnight trough when prices dipped to the low $60–$70/MWh range.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by wind at 755 MW, followed by gas CCGT at 368 MW and gas OCGT at 195 MW, with battery contributing 0.74 MW and solar generating 0 MW in the pre-dawn period. Wind is supplying the bulk of local output, with renewables contributing 57.32% of the generation mix at last read. Carbon intensity sits at 0.2328 tCO2/MWh — a marked improvement from the 0.39–0.43 tCO2/MWh range recorded during the morning peak hours earlier in the day when gas carried a heavier share of the load, and well below the overnight high of 0.4338 tCO2/MWh at approximately 17:25 AEST. Today's cloud cover is forecast at 90% with minimal solar potential, so wind will remain the primary variable renewable contributor throughout the day; wind potential is rated low at 1.6 average, suggesting wind generation may ease back from current levels.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval converge around $95–$103/MWh, consistent with the current print and indicating price stability in the near term. The 07:30 AEST interval carries slightly more upside, with forecasts ranging $103–$130/MWh across successive predispatch runs — likely reflecting morning demand ramp uncertainty. Overnight low-price windows are clearly signalled, with load window forecasts pointing to prices in the $10–$50/MWh range between roughly 10:30 AEST and 13:30 AEST tonight, presenting a strong opportunity for flexible and price-responsive loads.

One active market notice is directly relevant to SA today: the South Morang F2 500/330 kV transformer outage in Victoria (Market Notice 144122) remains in force until 17:00 AEST today (22 May), constraining inter-regional transfer capability on the V-SA interconnector via the V-SMTX_F_R constraint set. This limits the volume of Victorian imports available to SA and is a key factor traders should track into this afternoon's peak — any tightening of local SA supply against rising heating demand (forecast heating demand of 6.2 at current 11.8°C) could push prices above predispatch levels if the constraint binds more tightly. The EMMS datacentre transfer scheduled for 26 May (Market Notice 144119) is not operationally relevant today but warrants noting for next week's planning.