Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 19 May 2026

The South Australia spot price sits at **$65.67/MWh** at 06:30 AEST on 20 May 2026, with total demand at 1,377 MW. That current reading is broadly in line with the overnight trading range, which tracked a wide arc from negative territory (touching **-$45.73/MWh** around 14:45 AEST yesterday during peak wind output) to intraday highs above **$120/MWh** in the 09:10–09:25 AEST window. The 24-hour price profile reflects a typical autumn pattern: low overnight prices driven by abundant wind, a sharp morning ramp as demand climbed toward the 1,842 MW peak around 18:25–18:30 AEST, then a gradual softening through the evening. The current price is roughly $10–15/MWh below where it was trading during last evening's peak demand periods.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by **wind at 489.71 MW**, followed by **battery discharge at 171.85 MW**, **gas OCGT at 148.25 MW**, and **gas CCGT at 59 MW**. Solar is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at **76.15%** and carbon intensity is **0.1442 tCO2/MWh**, both recovering from a softer period around 20:00–20:30 AEST last night when renewables dipped to 72.1% and intensity rose to 0.169 tCO2/MWh. During the overnight trough (03:30–07:00 AEST), the grid reached its cleanest point of the day — intensity fell as low as **0.066 tCO2/MWh** with renewable penetration above 89% — driven entirely by wind with minimal gas commitment. Today's weather outlook (max 16.9°C, 21% average cloud cover, low average wind potential of 1.8) suggests reduced wind output relative to overnight levels but improved solar generation through the middle of the day.

Predispatch forecasts for the **07:00 AEST** half-hour (21:00 UTC) are converging around **$56–79/MWh**, with the most recent run (from 06:01 AEST) at **$78.74/MWh**. The spread in forecasts for that interval — ranging from $56.20 to $114.59 across the day's predispatch runs — reflects genuine uncertainty around gas unit commitment as wind steps down this morning. The **07:30 AEST** interval is similarly contested, with recent forecasts between $43 and $92. Overnight load windows from 10:00–11:30 AEST (00:00–01:30 UTC) are forecast well below $25/MWh and approaching single digits, consistent with the region's established pattern of low mid-morning prices once solar picks up. Traders positioning for today's morning ramp should note that predispatch is flagging upward price pressure in the 06:30–08:00 AEST window as demand rises and solar has yet to contribute meaningfully.

Two active market notices are relevant for forward planning. A **MARKET SYSTEMS notice (CHG0109708)** flags a one-hour EMMS production systems outage on **26 May from 18:00–19:00 AEST**, during which F