Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 16 May 2026

The South Australia spot price sits at $168.88/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,226 MW. That print is elevated relative to the bulk of the past 24 hours, though it is consistent with the sustained high-price band that has persisted since around 17:00 AEST yesterday — prices have traded predominantly between $138/MWh and $176/MWh through the evening and overnight periods, with the notable exception of the early-morning trough where the market cleared at or below zero between roughly 14:00–15:00 AEST (00:00–01:00 UTC), reflecting surplus wind generation against low overnight demand that bottomed near 827 MW. The 24-hour price profile is sharply bifurcated: sub-$10/MWh through the small hours giving way to a sustained $100–$176/MWh band once the morning ramp commenced around 16:00 AEST.

The current generation mix is gas-dominated at this evening hour. Gas OCGT is producing 401.79 MW, gas CCGT is contributing 230.72 MW — combined gas output of 632.51 MW accounts for approximately 51.6% of local supply against the 1,226 MW demand figure. Wind is generating 209.07 MW (17.0%), solar is at zero as expected post-sunset, and battery storage is contributing 4.57 MW net. Renewables are contributing 25.25% of the mix per the latest carbon data, a material decline from the overnight peak of 92.82% recorded around 10:30 AEST when wind dominated a low-demand grid. Carbon intensity sits at 0.4423 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from an overnight floor of 0.035 tCO2/MWh and broadly in line with the gas-heavy dispatch that has characterised the daytime and evening periods since 16:30 AEST. The intensity peak of 0.5585 tCO2/MWh was recorded at the 03:30 AEST interval (17:30 UTC), coinciding with the lowest renewable penetration reading of 3.4%.

The critical market notice for today is the unplanned outage of Murraylink, with constraint set I-ML_ZERO invoked at 01:45 AEST. This effectively severs the DC interconnector between SA and Victoria, removing an important avenue for import support and constraining the region's ability to source cheaper Victorian supply. This is a material factor in the sustained price elevation and explains why prices have remained anchored at or above $138/MWh through the evening rather than moderating. Two contingency reclassifications related to SA 275kV transmission lines during a severe weather event were also active but have since been cancelled as of 09:00 AEST. Predispatch forecasts for the next several half-hourly intervals point to prices in the $120–$138/MWh range for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window, with some runs projecting near-term softening toward $115–$125/MWh as overnight demand eases — though the Murraylink outage remains an upside price risk until the interconnector is restored, and any reduction in wind output will tighten the supply balance further given the absence of that import pathway.