Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 20 May 2026
The spot price in South Australia sits at $148.82/MWh at 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the sub-$20/MWh range that prevailed through the early overnight hours (roughly 10:30 AEST–14:30 AEST yesterday). The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices collapsed into single figures during the deep overnight trough before ratcheting firmly above $100/MWh from around 16:00 AEST onward as demand climbed through the winter evening peak. Total demand currently sits at 1,385.89 MW. With solar generation at 0 MW — consistent with the current overnight period and 77% cloud cover at 9.3°C — the grid is running entirely on dispatchable sources: gas OCGT contributes 424.62 MW, gas CCGT 404.31 MW, wind 108.83 MW, and battery storage 58.02 MW, for a total visible generation of 995.78 MW. The difference is covered by interconnector imports from Victoria. Renewable penetration stands at just 16.76%, driven solely by wind, and carbon intensity is 0.4761 tCO2/MWh — a significant step up from the 0.13–0.16 tCO2/MWh range recorded during overnight hours when wind was contributing 75–79% of supply.
The predispatch outlook for the next two intervals points to prices in the $132–$138/MWh range for the 07:00 AEST interval, moderating somewhat from the current level. Further ahead, the 08:00 AEST interval is forecast around $130/MWh, with load window signals for the 10:30–11:30 AEST (UTC 00:30–01:30) period dropping into the $27–$45/MWh range as overnight demand eases. The morning demand ramp — visible in the price history, where the 06:00 AEST settlement printed $158.97/MWh — has already passed its acute phase. Today's weather outlook for SA1 improves through the day, with a max of 17.3°C, average solar potential of 15.3, and average wind potential of 1.1, suggesting some solar injection will arrive mid-morning to assist with price moderation, though cloud cover averaging 40% will limit the solar contribution relative to a clear May day.
The most relevant active market notice for SA is the inter-regional transfer limit variation on the South Morang F2 500/330 kV transformer in Victoria (Notice 144122), with constraint set V-SMTX_F_R active and the outage rescheduled to run until 17:00 AEST on 22 May. This constraint affects the V-SA interconnector flow equations and is a material factor in SA's current import capability from Victoria. Traders should note the constraint remains in force through tomorrow, meaning SA's ability to draw cheaply from the Victorian grid remains restricted — a key driver of the elevated gas dispatch and firm pricing seen since the evening ramp. The MT PASA reserve notice (144119) identifies no low reserve conditions across the NEM at this time, and no SA-specific voltage or system strength interventions are currently active, though the notice history from 14–15 May shows voltage-driven directions at Barker Inlet remain a recurring risk profile for this region during low-synchronous-generation periods.
Grid engineers should monitor the evening ramp from approximately 16: