Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 18 May 2026
The SA spot price sits at $73.96/MWh at 06:00 AEST, a sharp drop from the sustained $165–$262/MWh band that dominated the overnight session between roughly 21:00 and 03:00 AEST. The 24-hour average across the price history sits in the $140–$150/MWh range, meaning current conditions are tracking well below that mean as the early-morning period normalises. Total demand is 1,366.88 MW, consistent with typical pre-dawn Tuesday levels. Current temperature is 14.4°C with moderate cloud cover at 70% and a mild heating demand signal, so no significant demand spike is expected through the morning commute period.
The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is dominated by wind at 1,128.76 MW, complemented by gas CCGT at 294.27 MW, gas OCGT at 198.61 MW, and battery discharging at 5.66 MW. Solar is contributing 0 MW, consistent with pre-sunrise conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 69.71% and carbon intensity is 0.1679 tCO2/MWh — a significant improvement from the overnight trough where renewables fell to below 6% and intensity spiked to 0.5294 tCO2/MWh. The wind resource is clearly strong this morning, with today's forecast wind potential of 5.4 averaging well above recent days, supporting continued elevated wind output through the day before conditions ease later in the week.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–08:00 AEST trading period (21:00 UTC target) are converging tightly in the $85–$92/MWh range, with the most recent runs from the 06:00–06:30 UTC window pointing to approximately $86–$89/MWh. This represents a modest step-up from the current $74/MWh but remains well below the overnight highs. The forward load windows for tonight from 10:30–16:30 AEST (00:00–06:30 UTC) show forecast prices in the $3–$58/MWh range, with several intervals near or below $10/MWh — an attractive window for flexible and deferrable load. Low overnight demand combined with continued wind output is the primary driver of those sub-$20/MWh windows.
Two active market notices carry direct SA relevance. Murraylink remains out of service following an unplanned outage (Market Notice 144097/144100, constraint set I-ML_ZERO active), removing the SA–VIC DC interconnector and reducing SA's import and export flexibility — a meaningful constraint during any supply stress event. Separately, QLD is carrying an active ST PASA Forecast LOR1 for today from 06:00 to 19:30 AEST (Market Notice 144109), which has no direct pricing impact on SA but reflects tighter NEM-wide conditions that could propagate through interconnector flows if the Heywood link is drawn on. Traders should also note the earlier SA Minimum System Load MSL1 event on 17 May (cancelled at 14:30) as a reminder that high wind penetration during low-demand periods remains a recurring system security consideration in this region, particularly with Murraylink offline reducing available system strength support.