Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 17 May 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $204.94/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,375 MW. This is firmly elevated relative to the overnight trough — prices bottomed around $100–103/MWh during the 09:00–12:00 AEST off-peak window — and have been climbing consistently through the evening peak, with several intervals touching $220–$232/MWh in the hour prior. The 24-hour price history shows a textbook winter evening ramp, with sustained pricing above $150/MWh from 17:30 AEST onward and spikes above $220/MWh at 17:25, 18:10 (AEST equivalent), and 06:30 AEST today. Grid stress is scored at 81.9 out of 100, reflecting the tightness of the current dispatch environment.

The generation mix is entirely gas-driven at this hour. GAS_CCGT is contributing 535 MW and GAS_OCGT a further 492 MW, together accounting for approximately 94% of local generation. Wind is producing just 60 MW and battery storage a negligible 0.44 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn hour. This translates to a renewable penetration of only 5.56% — well below the daytime peak of 35% recorded around 02:30–04:30 AEST when wind output was stronger and demand was at its overnight low. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5351 tCO2/MWh, the highest point recorded across the available history and consistent with the near-total reliance on gas-fired dispatch. The Murraylink interconnector is currently offline following an unplanned outage (constraint set I-ML_ZERO invoked), removing the SA–VIC DC link as a source of import support and contributing to SA's dependence on local gas generation. A prior Minimum System Load MSL1 notice issued for SA earlier today was subsequently cancelled, confirming that the overnight low-demand risk did not materialise.

Predispatch forecasts are pointing to a significant further price escalation. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $258.74/MWh in the most recent predispatch run, with the 07:30 AEST period forecast at $279.91/MWh. Forecasts for the 08:00–09:30 AEST window (22:00–23:30 UTC) are broadly in the $260–$284/MWh range across multiple runs, with the 09:00 AEST half-hour forecast as high as $283.78/MWh. The forward curve for the 10:00 AEST (00:00 UTC) period clusters in the $240–$280/MWh band. Load windows into the early morning hours remain priced above $220/MWh with no clear relief below $140/MWh until the 08:30–09:00 AEST window where some forecast runs dip to the $139–$148/MWh range, likely coinciding with demand easing into the morning shoulder. Flexibility holders and demand-response participants should note that today's morning period offers the clearest price relief opportunity before conditions tighten again ahead of the next business-day ramp.

The most operationally relevant active notice for SA is the Murraylink outage (Market Notice 144097/144577