Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 21 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $98.81/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand at 6,427 MW and climbing into the morning ramp. That current price is a notable step-down from the evening peak, which touched $133.83/MWh at 07:00 AEST — though the trajectory through the overnight trough tells the fuller story. Prices collapsed to negative territory from roughly 09:00–15:00 AEST (UTC+10 offset applied), with the floor hitting -$4.09/MWh at 13:05 AEST, before the morning demand ramp drove a sharp recovery through $50–$78/MWh by 15:30–16:00 AEST and back above $90/MWh by 17:00 AEST. The current level near $98.81/MWh is broadly consistent with the pre-dispatch consensus for the 07:00 AEST trading period, and the most recent forecasts cluster the 07:30 AEST half-hour at $101.83/MWh, suggesting modest upward pressure as demand continues to build toward the morning peak.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal supplying 4,714 MW (accounting for roughly 61% of the 7,078 MW total generation stack), with batteries contributing 770 MW, wind 1,009 MW, gas OCGT 466 MW, hydro 119 MW, and solar a negligible 0.5 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewables (wind, hydro, solar) are contributing approximately 16% of generation at this interval. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6288 tCO2/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, which is a material improvement on the daytime peak of 0.7464 tCO2/MWh recorded around 02:25–02:30 AEST when wind output was lower and thermal dispatch was heavier. The carbon history shows intensity was markedly lower overnight (reaching as low as 0.4625 tCO2/MWh around 09:00 AEST) when wind penetration was stronger and demand was at its nadir below 4,000 MW. Today's solar forecast of 14.3 average potential with only 22% cloud cover suggests solar will build meaningfully through mid-morning, which may push renewable penetration back toward the 25–30% range seen in recent overnight intervals and apply some downward price pressure through the solar window before the evening ramp reasserts.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are consistently clustering around $96–$101.83/MWh across multiple run times, indicating the market is not anticipating any sharp spike in the immediate morning window. The 07:30 AEST period is also forecast at $90–$105.95/MWh in earlier runs. The MT PASA published 19 May identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the outlook period, and the most recent MTPASA reserve notice (144126) is clean. The most operationally relevant active notice for QLD this morning is Market Notice 144126: STAN-4 was declared non-conforming by AEMO for 15 MW at 18:45–18:50 AEST on 21 May under constraint NC-Q_STAN-4 — a minor, brief event with no ongoing market impact. The South