Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 20 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $138.88/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,566 MW and rising. This is the upper end of the evening ramp, tracking a clear escalation from the $82–$96/MWh range seen through the late afternoon. The 24-hour price profile tells a sharp story: prices collapsed to near-zero and into negative territory (as low as -$10.18/MWh) through the overnight trough between roughly 23:00 and 06:00 AEST, then accelerated quickly from $34.71/MWh at 15:50 AEST through to current levels as demand builds into the evening peak. The intraday high reached $190/MWh at 07:00 AEST before settling into a $100–$118/MWh band through the business day.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,043 MW, followed by battery storage dispatching 537 MW, wind contributing 946 MW, hydro at 302 MW, gas OCGT at 167 MW, and solar at a negligible 0.25 MW — consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewables are contributing 25.53% of the generation mix at this interval, down materially from the overnight peak above 51% when low demand amplified their relative share. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6499 tCO2/MWh, elevated compared to the overnight low of around 0.42 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the higher coal dispatch required to meet the evening demand uplift. Wind at 946 MW is the primary variable generation source at this hour, with clear skies (0% cloud cover) and minimal wind speed of 12.9 km/h providing limited additional renewable contribution tonight.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing from the current $138.88/MWh level, with the 07:30 AEST half-hour period (21:30 UTC target) forecast in the $96–$106/MWh range across multiple predispatch runs — a step-down of roughly $30–$40/MWh as the evening peak demand subsides. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $123–$134/MWh across the most recent predispatch runs, confirming the market expects prices to remain firm for the next 30 minutes before pulling back. Load window data indicates overnight prices are forecast to return to strongly negative levels between 09:00–11:30 AEST (23:00–01:30 UTC), with indicative prices reaching as low as -$27.50/MWh, consistent with the pattern observed overnight.

Two active market notices are directly relevant to QLD1 today. A non-conformance notice (MN 144124) was issued for unit SWANBBF1, declared non-conforming for a five-minute interval at 07:25–07:30 AEST at -117 MW. A contingency reclassification notice (MN 144123) flagged the Mudgeeraba–Terranora No.757 and No.758 110 kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning activity, though this was subsequently cancelled (MN 144125) once lightning cleared the area at 08:44 AEST — no constraint sets were invoked at any point. The ongoing South Morang F2 500