Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 19 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $111.11/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,580 MW — a notable step down from the morning peak of ~7,900 MW observed around 18:00 AEST and well below the overnight highs that touched $231.71/MWh during the 07:15–07:25 AEST window. Over the past 24 hours, prices have been volatile, ranging from a low of $58.93/MWh to that $231.71/MWh spike, with a rough arithmetic average across intervals sitting in the $95–105/MWh band. The current $111.11/MWh print reflects a mild evening ramp as demand climbs back from its mid-afternoon trough of ~5,460 MW.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by black coal at 4,373 MW (approximately 66% of output), with wind contributing 1,369 MW (21%), battery storage dispatching 651 MW (10%), gas OCGT providing 186 MW (3%), hydro at 98 MW (1%), and solar at a negligible 0.67 MW given the pre-dawn timestamp. Total renewable contribution — wind, hydro, and solar — sits at 31.72% of generation, the highest renewable penetration recorded in the dataset across today's trading window. Carbon intensity has improved to 0.5945 tCO2/MWh, down from 0.6657 tCO2/MWh at the start of the overnight period, driven by the lift in wind output and battery discharge displacing thermal plant at the margin. The 14.4°C ambient temperature and near-zero cloud cover (1%) overnight are consistent with clear-sky conditions supporting moderate solar generation through today's daylight hours; today's outlook shows an average solar potential of 26.9 and a maximum of 22°C, which will assist renewables penetration through the 08:00–15:00 AEST window.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) have converged sharply lower over the course of the day — early morning runs were pricing that interval at $222–$231/MWh, but the most recent run at 06:01 AEST has it at $105.95/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval is currently forecast at $90.09/MWh in the latest run. This downward revision reflects improved reserve availability and reduced scarcity risk as overnight conditions stabilised. Load window modelling points to strongly negative prices across the 08:30–15:30 AEST window (UTC 22:30–05:30), with prices forecast as low as −$41.42/MWh at 13:00 AEST as solar generation ramps and demand remains subdued in the post-morning-peak trough — a materially attractive window for flexible load, battery charging, and demand response.

Two market notices carry direct Queensland relevance. The ST PASA and PD PASA reserve notices (MN 144109, 144111, 144093) issued over 16–17 May flagged Forecast LOR1 conditions for QLD on 19 May from 06:00–19:30 AEST and LOR2 from 06:00–19:30 AEST — both of those periods have now passed and the LOR1